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01 May 2026

Electoral Calculus: General Election Prediction Updated 25 April 2026 Current Prediction: Reform short 78 of majority

Commentary for end-April 2026

In terms of voting intention, there were no notable changes over the month. Reform are still set to be the largest party, but well short of an overall majority. Labour is 8pc behind Reform in terms of votes, and still forecast to win fewer than a...

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