COVID-19 prompted a dramatic change in behavior that made Italy more stable and predictable. But with a new president and a general election approaching, there is concern that recent gains could be abandoned just as the country must decide how to use its windfall of EU recovery funds.
Two years ago this month, Italy reported its initial cases of COVID-19.
The country was the first in Europe to be hit by the coronavirus, and it
offered examples of both the best and the worst of the epidemic. In
March 2020, neighbors sang on their balconies to comfort one another as
military transport convoys carried the dead out of Bergamo.
Today, Italy is battling another wave of
coronavirus infections driven by the Omicron variant. But the situation
on the ground now looks very different from those early days. Evidence
suggests that COVID-19 in Italy has become endemic – not (yet) in
epidemiological terms, but rather in its effect on residents. The virus
has transformed behaviors and adjusted perceptions. A visitor returning
for the first time after these two pandemic years would find a country
that has changed – overwhelmingly for the better. In terms of the
COVID-19 response, Italy is on the high end of compliance with
public-health measures, relative to its European peers. Around
75% of the population
has received two doses of a coronavirus vaccine, and over 45% have
gotten a booster shot. The government has effectively imposed a vaccine
mandate on people over 50, one of only a few European countries to do
so. And testing rates are consistently high. A “traffic light” system of
measures ensures that the country’s regions are able to implement the
government’s decisions quickly as caseloads rise. Italians
overwhelmingly adhere to the new rules that govern access to
restaurants, museums, and public transport. They are ready to show the
“green pass” that indicates vaccination status and put on a face mask.
Of course, Italy is not exempt from the kind of uncertainties that are
now common to all developed countries. Criteria for social distancing,
mask requirements, and targeted closures are being adapted constantly.
The availability of personal protective equipment or vaccines has been
an issue at times. And debates over remote work and education have
replaced the weather as the main topic of casual conversation. But these challenges should not obscure Italy’s radical transformation.
In December, The Economist
named Italy its country of the year for 2021. The magazine, frequently
critical of Italy in the past, did not reach this verdict because of the
national team’s victory in the European football championship or the
triumph of Italian rock band Måneskin at Eurovision. It was a
recognition of changes in the country’s politics.
Under the leadership of Prime Minister
Mario Draghi,
Italy has acquired an unusual degree of stability and predictability.
The government enjoys bipartisan – almost unanimous – support. As a
result, Italy has gained greater significance in Europe and on the world
stage. But will it last? As the country installs its next president
and anticipates a general election, set to be held within the next 16
months, there is a concern that, as the sense of urgency dissipates, the
political consensus will vanish, many of the recent gains will be
squandered, and Italy’s “old normal” will return with a vengeance. But
this is not a foregone conclusion. The European Union
has allotted Italy the biggest share
of its Recovery and Resilience Facility, a whopping €191.5 billion
($217 billion) in grants and loans to be distributed over the next six
years. The size and the scope of the RRF disbursement could drive a
wholesale digital and green transformation of the country. With these
funds, Italy can build the sustainable and technologically advanced
critical infrastructure needed to navigate the twenty-first century....
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