[...]Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday took a constructive tone, in the House of Commons and in her letter to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council. She thereby laid a solid foundation for the bruising negotiations that lie ahead.
Mrs May was respectful of the liberal values and achievements of the EU bloc. She emphasised that the process of separation must be phased, smooth and orderly — setting aside the reckless talk of ministers who consider a “cliff edge” exit acceptable. She acknowledged, accordingly, that British companies will have to accept EU rules when they trade with the bloc.
Finally, she stressed the importance of an early agreement on the rights of UK citizens living in the EU, and vice versa. This was responsible talk. So was the recognition that, post-Brexit, many powers returning to the UK should in turn be devolved to Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. Mrs May is determined to preserve the union, recognising at the same time that a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland must be avoided.
Most important was what the prime minister did not say. The absence of menace was a welcome departure from Mrs May’s previous strident rhetoric. There was one regrettable exception. Her letter unmistakably suggested that continuing or deepening the current level of UK/EU security co-operation depends on reaching an exit agreement.
Military and intelligence co-operation is where the UK has the most to offer Europe. This will give the UK some leverage in the negotiations. It is also true that reducing co-operation in response to a diplomatic breakdown would be an immoral act that could put lives in danger. It was therefore a mistake to continue dangling what is ultimately an empty threat.
The negotiations will test the farsightedness of both sides. Unexpected events will require adjustments. Still, there are general principles that the parties should adhere to. The UK should aim to resolve quickly the “Brexit bill” — the money to be paid by the UK to settle its obligations to Europe — and the rights of EU citizens residing within its borders. Britain is big enough to fulfil its pre-Brexit financial commitments, and allow the EU citizens to stay. The negotiations should not be dominated by arguments over a one-time payment (which could easily be spread out) when an enduring economic relationship is at stake.
To date, British politics has consumed the Brexit debate. Now the EU27 will have their say. Westminister should be braced for some hard truths, as Mrs May signalled.
For their part, the EU27 should act as one, as Germany’s Angela Merkel has stressed. Both sides will lose if agreed points melt away when renegade EU members dissent. The EU must also be willing to start transition and trade discussions before the terms of exit are settled. Brussels insists this is not possible under the Lisbon treaty.
In practice, with a two-year deadline on negotiations, there is not time to work sequentially. This is an opportunity for the EU to show goodwill, even if a comprehensive trade agreement cannot be finalised until an exit deal is in place.
In her letter, Mrs May called for a “deep and special partnership” with Europe. That should be a goal shared by all. No one should underestimate the trials ahead. If Europe restrains the urge to punish the UK, and the UK does not overestimate its bargaining power, a successful outcome remains possible.
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