British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for a general election on 8 June is a perilous combination of low risk and high stakes. According to opinion polls, May’s Conservative government will win a more comfortable majority than the current margin of 330 members of parliament out of 650. But if things go wrong, the result may be a hung parliament where no party wins an absolute majority. Britain would be ungovernable as it begins negotiations to exit the European Union. At the same time, Scottish nationalists would probably seek a second independence referendum, and Northern Ireland might be forced to consider its role in the union. [...]
One interpretation is that May wishes to free herself of hard-core Brexiteers, who account for 50-60 MPs. A higher majority would give May more leeway in negotiations with the EU27. But if this is her intention, May’s action amounts to putting her party ahead of the country. It seems that her need to keep the Conservatives united is more important than working with the current parliament to secure a sensible Brexit result with large support across parties.
A substantially larger majority will be necessary to justify calling an election. If the Conservatives win, for example, only an additional 10 seats in the House of Commons, this might look like a failure. This would especially be true if the number of hard-core Brexiteers stays the same or increases. [...]
Low voter turnout would almost certainly hurt the Conservatives more than other parties. Those who voted to remain in the EU could see the general election as an occasion to flaunt their dissatisfaction. The British electoral system means that a large majority of votes does not necessarily convert into a large parliamentary majority. In this context, it appears unwise to have ruled out a second referendum on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. Giving that assurance might have damped temptations among Remainers to use the general election to protest against the government.
A Conservative majority in the House of Commons after 8 June looks overwhelmingly probable. Yet it does not guarantee May a sufficiently stronger position to justify the possible worst case scenario: an ungovernable Britain.
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