A no-deal Brexit would result in a “moderate recession” for as many as five quarters in the U.K., with the economy contracting by 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.5 percent in 2020, the ratings company said in a statement Tuesday. In such a scenario, unemployment would rise from record-low levels to more than 7 percent by 2020 -- a level not seen since the financial crisis, S&P said.
“The risk of a no-deal has increased sufficiently to become a relevant rating consideration,” said Paul Watters, a credit analyst with S&P. “This reflects the inability thus far of the U.K. and EU to reach agreement on the Northern Irish border issue, the critical outstanding component of the proposed Withdrawal Treaty.” [...]
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