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12 January 2017

Brexit 'Weekly'

Brexit, London Stock Exchange, Lloyds, money laundering, UK-EU trade, investment banking, European Council, Debt Sustainability Monitor, Basel III and more.

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  Articles from 15 December 2016 - 12 January 2017

Statement after the informal meeting of the 27 heads of state or government
After the informal meeting held on 15 December 2016 in Brussels, the 27 heads of state or government and Presidents of the European Council and Commission issued a statement on the upcoming Brexit negotiations.  View Article
House of Lords: Brexit: parliamentary scrutiny
Lords produced a report concluding that the forthcoming negotiations on Brexit will be unprecedented in their complexity and their impact upon domestic policy. Therefore, it is inconceivable that these negotiations should be conducted by the Government without active parliamentary scrutiny.  View Article
House of Lords: Leaving the European Union: Machinery of Government Changes
This Lords Library briefing explores machinery of government changes announced by the Prime Minister, Theresa May, on 18 July 2016, in the wake of the United Kingdom’s referendum vote in favour of leaving the European Union.  View Article
City AM: London Stock Exchange poised to announce crucial sale of French clearing arm
The London Stock Exchange Group is likely to announce the sale of its French clearing arm, City A.M. understands.  View Article
Financial Times: Lloyds to set up European arm if UK loses access to single market
Plans would ensure British bank can maintain its German and Dutch retail clients.  View Article
Bloomberg: LSE CEO Sees Brexit Risking 232,000 Jobs, Market Stability
LSE Group Plc CEO Xavier Rolet told the Treasury Select Committee the impact should officials fail to implement an orderly transition out of the EU wouldn’t just lead to 232,000 job cuts and the loss of the UK’s vital clearing business, it would pose a risk to broader financial stability.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: France forecast to win Brexit business in 2017
France could emerge as a strong insurance centre in 2017 following efforts to attract new subsidiaries looking for a European base outside the UK post Brexit, according to predictions for the year ahead from Clyde & Co.  View Article
Security Union: Commission adopts stronger rules to fight terrorism financing
The proposals being presented by the Commission will complete and reinforce the EU's legal framework in the areas of money laundering, illicit cash flows and the freezing and confiscation of assets.  View Article
Bloomberg: Paris eyes luring 20,000 bankers from London amid Brexit rupture
Paris could lure as many as 20,000 workers from Britain’s finance industry with the exodus potentially starting within weeks as the UK begins its withdrawal from the European Union, according to Europlace, the French capital’s lobby group.  View Article
The Guardian: Dozens of UK banks and financial firms 'looking at moving to Ireland'
Banks and financial institutions make up the overwhelming majority of more than 100 companies inquiring about relocating to Ireland after Brexit, the head of the agency tasked with bringing foreign investment into the republic has confirmed.  View Article
Financial Times: Japanese banks warn of leaving London without Brexit clarity
Japanese financial institutions have told the government they will begin moving some functions from London within six months unless they can get clarity on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.  View Article
POLITICO: UK banks could sue EU, say lawyers
Banks should retain passporting rights post-Brexit, British legal firms argue.  View Article
Bloomberg: Merkel says UK must observe four freedoms in EU unity call
German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that the UK adhere to European Union rules on freedom of movement in return for market access as she called on EU member states to stand strong in the face of global challenges.  View Article
Nicola Sturgeon: Scotland’s plan to protect its place in European single market
The Scottish government published proposals aimed at securing Scotland’s place in Europe, and specifically its continued place in the EU’s single market, writes the Scottish First Minister in the Financial Times.   View Article
House of Commons: Statistics on UK-EU trade
This note provides some basic statistics on the UK's trade with the EU, which is its largest trading partner as data shows. The analysis confirms that the UK had an overall trade deficit of £61 billion with the EU in 2015.  View Article
Civitas: Mitigating the impact of tariffs on UK-EU trade
Post-Brexit, in the event of there being no trade treaty, UK exports to the EU-27 could expect to suffer tariff costs in the region of £5.2 billion, but the corresponding exports from the EU-27 to the UK would face costs in the region of £12.9 billion.  View Article
The Economist: The “WTO option” for Brexit is far from straightforward
Becoming an independent member of the WTO could be a difficult process, in The Economist view.  View Article
CER: Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap
Remaining in the customs union would be the best way to minimise the economic costs of Brexit. But the customs union and the single market are not easy to disentangle, and the EU-27 would demand a high price for an arrangement that eliminates costly customs charges and checks.  View Article
EurActiv: Future of EU trade deals in doubt after Singapore ruling
A decision regarding the European Union’s trade deal with Singapore could have far-reaching implications for future agreements, after the EU’s top lawyer said the European Commission could not finalise the deal without member state approval.  View Article
The Bar Council Brexit Working Group: The Brexit papers
The Bar Council set up a working group this year to examine the legal issues arising from Brexit and produced a comprehensive paper in regard to legal matters arising from the UK departure from the EU.  View Article
CBR: The Macro-Economic Impact of Brexit: Using the CBR Macro-Economic Model of the UK Economy (UKMOD)
A new economic forecast for 2017 for the UK economy from the Centre for Business Research of the University of Cambridge expresses optimism but says Brexit uncertainty must be addressed.  View Article
Financial Times: Bank of England’s Haldane admits crisis in economic forecasting
The Bank of England’s chief economist has warned of the dangers of placing too much faith in economic forecasts while reiterating that the central bank believes the vote for Brexit will hit the economy in 2017.  View Article
The Telegraph: Big business groups vow to make Brexit a success
Britain's five biggest business groups have joined forces for the first time and promised to make a success of Brexit as the UK starts the process of leaving the European Union.  View Article
VoxEU: The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration to the UK
The potential negative impact of Brexit-induced reductions in openness to migration on the UK economy could well equal that resulting from Brexit-induced reductions in trade.  View Article
ORB: UK increasingly likely to prefer control over immigration than access to free trade
Population remain unsure on whether Prime Minister will get the right deal for the UK, while a majority disapprove of the way in which Brexit negotiations are being handled.  View Article
City AM: Major European states don't want to follow the UK's vote for Brexit, new poll shows
According to a new poll by WIN/Gallup International, voters in the EU's biggest states of France, Germany, Italy and Greece believe their countries are heading in the wrong direction, but support for the EU remains strong and they are not planning to copy the UK's departure.  View Article
Open Europe: UK Ambassador to EU unexpectedly resigns and warns of short supply of negotiating experience in Whitehall
Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the EU, unexpectedly resigned and warned of ‘muddled thinking’.  View Article
The Guardian: As a trade negotiator, I’m shocked at Brexiters’ ignorance
A Canadian trade expert has no illusions about the complexities the UK face after the vote to leave the EU.  View Article
ISDA Brexit FAQs
These FAQs address the possible UK position post-Brexit. The responses to these FAQs involve an assessment of the various outcomes of the exit negotiations and the consequences of those outcomes and it is not possible in all cases to give a definitive answer.  View Article
Bruegel: The United States dominates global investment banking: does it matter for Europe?
Europe’s banks are in retreat from playing a global investment banking role, and this trend is likely to continue in the future. What will be the consequences and what should be the policy response?  View Article
Schulz: “Let us have the courage to fight for the EU”
Martin Schulz stressed the importance of cooperation and solidarity in his last speech as Parliament President at a European Council meeting. Addressing heads of government, he called on them to make progress on issues such as defence, migration and Russia, and touched upon the Brexit negotiations.  View Article
European Council conclusions
The European Council on 15 December 2016 adopted conclusions on migration, security, economic and social development, youth, Cyprus, and external relations.  View Article
ECFIN: Debt Sustainability Monitor 2016
The Debt Sustainability Monitor 2016 provides an overview of the challenges to public finance sustainability faced by Member States in the short, medium and long term.  View Article
BIS: Finalising Basel III reforms
The Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS), the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, postponed its January meeting so as to allow more time to properly finalise the package of proposals.  View Article
EIOPA: Opinion on disclosure of information related to the use of transitional measures in the calculation of technical provisions
The objective of the Opinion is to clarify expectations of National Supervisory Authorities on the disclosure of information in the SFCR regarding the use of the transitional measures, in particular considering the impact of the methodology used for the decrease of the transitional.   View Article
Accountancy Europe: Auditor’s involvement regarding the ex-ante contributions to the Single Resolution Fund
Accountancy Europe has published an information paper that aims to raise awareness of the auditor’s involvement regarding the Single Resolution Board’s (SRB) responsibility for the calculation of ex-ante contributions to the Single Resolution Fund (SRF).   View Article
Financial Times: A make-or-break moment for Europe’s rules on bank crises
Rome’s late-December pledge of state support – by setting aside €20bn for troubled banks including Monte dei Paschi di Siena – may have shored-up market confidence and placated Brussels by accepting that some junior creditors would also take a hit. But this was not the end.  View Article
Bruegel: Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context (3rd annual report)
The purpose of this report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.  View Article
Money laundering and terrorist financing: Council agrees its negotiating stance
The Council has agreed its negotiating stance on strengthened EU rules to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing.  View Article

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