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18 October 2018

Brexit Weekly

European Council, Brexit transition could be extended by one year to 2021, David Davis calls for cabinet rebellion, UK support for Remain jumps, Germany and France start to draw up no-deal Brexit contingency plans, UK economy heading for worst year and more.

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  Articles from 11 October 2018 - 18 October 2018

  Brexit & UK
Financial Times: Barnier open to extending Brexit transition by one year to 2021
Michel Barnier has said he is open to a one-year extension to Britain’s Brexit transition if UK prime minister Theresa May accepts a “two-tier” backstop to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, in a move welcomed by Dublin.  View Article
Invitation letter by President Donald Tusk to the members of the European Council ahead of their meetings on 17 and 18 October 2018
The European Council President announced that UK PM Theresa May would address the EU27 to give an assessment of the negotiations from the UK side, and that the Commission would update member states on its preparations EU for a no-deal scenario, "which is more likely than ever before", Tusk warned.  View Article
House of Commons: Theresa May claims "real progress" on the Brexit deal
The Prime Minister claimed "real progress" in Brexit negotiations but stated that the Government is still negotiating with the EU over their proposal for a "backstop to the backstop". She said that she continues to believe that a negotiated deal is the best outcome.  View Article
POLITICO: Close but no deal: UK, EU scramble to salvage Brexit talks
After a chaotic weekend of intense negotiations, London and Brussels fell short of a Brexit deal but emerged seeing eye-to-eye on a crucial point: It’s time to bring in the big shots.   View Article
BBC: Brexit: David Davis calls for cabinet rebellion over PM's plan
Cabinet ministers should "exert their collective authority" and rebel against Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal, ex-Brexit Secretary David Davis has said.  View Article
POLITICO: UK support for Remain jumps in EU survey
People in the UK would vote to remain in the European Union if they were given a second in-out referendum, according to a survey of public opinion across the bloc.  View Article
UK Treasury Committee sets out expectations for Bank of England and FCA’s Brexit analysis
The Chair of the Treasury Committee wrote to the Governor of the Bank of England, Chief Executive Officer of the FCA and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, asking them to produce and publish an analysis of the impact of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and future framework, once it has been negotiated.  View Article
Reuters: British banks risk ratings downgrades in disorderly Brexit: S&P
British banks could face potential credit rating downgrades if there is a disorderly Brexit as this would be likely to trigger a domestic political crisis and economic contraction, credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s said.  View Article
Bloomberg: EU mulls no-deal Brexit crisis summit in November
European Union leaders are considering holding a crisis summit in November to draw up contingency plans in case the UK crashes out of the bloc without a deal, EU diplomats said.  View Article
US threatens to bar EU banks from exchanges
One of the US’s top regulators has threatened to stop European banks from using US futures markets if the EU refuses to water down post-Brexit plans to oversee clearing houses.  View Article
Bloomberg: US warns of risk from hard Brexit and wants a transition period
A senior Treasury department official warned that a hard Brexit could hurt global financial stability and said the US is working with officials in the UK and EU to limit risks of Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc.  View Article
The Guardian: Germany and France start to draw up no-deal Brexit contingency plans
Germany and France are starting to step up their preparations for a no-deal Brexit even though both publicly insist an agreement with the UK over its the terms of its departure from the European Union can still be achieved.  View Article
Belfast Telegraph: Shock poll finds 87% of Northern Ireland leave voters say peace process collapse price worth paying for Brexit
A new poll has claimed that the overwhelming majority of people in Northern Ireland who voted leave in the Brexit referendum would be willing to see the peace process collapse to deliver Brexit.  View Article
BBC: Davidson and Mundell 'could resign over Brexit deal'
Scots Tory leader Ruth Davidson and Scottish Secretary David Mundell could resign from their roles over a possible Brexit compromise, BBC sources say.  View Article
The Independent: No-deal Brexit would wipe out deals that deliver 12% of the UK’s total trade, government admits
Trade agreements enjoyed with other countries, through EU membership, will “cease to apply” if the UK crashes out of the EU. The government said it would attempt to replicate the deals “as soon as possible thereafter” – but admitted those “third countries” would have leverage to demand better terms.  View Article
The Guardian: UK economy heading for worst year since crash, say economists
The British economy is heading for its worst year in almost a decade amid the growing risks from no-deal Brexit, according to a leading economic forecaster.  View Article
Bloomberg: Disorderly Brexit could have ‘severe’ impact, UK watchdog says
The UK could experience shortages of vital imports, a sharp fall in the pound and higher prices in the shops in the event of a disorderly Brexit, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.  View Article
BCC Quarterly Economic Survey: Uncertainty bites as survey shows UK economy is stuck in a rut
The British Chambers of Commerce’s quarterly economic survey – the UK’s largest private sector survey of business sentiment, and a lead indicator of UK GDP growth - shows little to be cheerful about as growth flatlines and business confidence weakens.  View Article
BBC: Voters split over post-Brexit economy, survey suggests
The study of 2,975 UK adults, conducted in 2017 by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found about a third think it will be better in 10 years. The same proportion think the economy will be worse.  View Article
Bloomberg: No-deal Brexit advice for business: you might want to leave
Companies based in Britain may need to consider leaving the country or restructuring in order to continue operating after a no-deal Brexit, the government said.  View Article
Financial Times: Midsized UK businesses turn sour on Brexit
The UK’s midsized businesses no longer expect to emerge from Brexit stronger as the prospect of leaving the EU without a deal grows.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: Time running out to begin Brexit supply chain risk management
Businesses cannot afford to wait any longer to carry out vital supply chain risk management work in preparation for Brexit, according to experts at a Clyde and Co event.  View Article
Bloomberg: Businesses preparing to move R&D out of UK as Brexit looms
Over 60 percent of businesses are preparing to move research and development facilities and teams out of the UK as they ready for life after Britain leaves the European Union, according to FTI Consulting.  View Article
Financial Times: Wells Fargo applies for licence in France as part of Brexit strategy
Wells Fargo has asked French regulators for an investment firm licence, in the latest boost for Paris as it looks to become Europe’s pre-eminent banking centre after Brexit.  View Article
Bloomberg: Speed trader Hudson River chooses Dublin as post-Brexit home
Hudson River Trading LLC, one of Europe’s biggest equity traders, picked Dublin to be its base in the European Union once the UK leaves the bloc next March.  View Article
Financial Times: Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase sets up Brexit contingency plan
Coinbase, the US cryptocurrency exchange, is opening an office in Dublin as part of its contingency planning before the UK leaves the EU next year.  View Article
Financial Times: Japan’s Daiwa trading unit shifts to Frankfurt as Brexit looms
Daiwa is the latest Japanese bank to migrate trading operations to Frankfurt from London, as the nation’s financiers move ahead with their Brexit contingency plans with only six months to go and no deal with the EU in sight.  View Article
Financial Times: Donald Trump looks to start formal US-UK trade talks
The Trump administration has told Congress that it wants to start formal trade talks with the UK “as soon as it is ready” after Brexit, a sign that negotiations with London are a priority even as Washington seeks separate deals with the EU and Japan and fights a trade war with China.  View Article
The Telegraph: Britain will face £36 billion Brexit bill if it fails to agree a trade deal with EU, Chancellor warns MPs
Britain will still have to pay the EU up to £36 billion if it fails to agree a trade deal, Philip Hammond has claimed, as Brussels said no deal is now “more likely than ever”.  View Article
The Guardian: Divided Britain: study finds huge chasm in attitudes
Britain is hugely divided across cultural, age and education lines, a major study of national attitudes has concluded, warning of a potential rise in far-right and anti-Islam sentiments unless politicians tackle long-standing disaffections behind the Brexit vote.  View Article

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