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26 September 2013

Integrating Europe - 26th September 2013
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Graham Bishop's Personal Contributions

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Articles from 19 September 2013 - 26 September 2013

Graham Bishops Personal Contributions

Graham Bishop: The German Elections - What a Result!
The election campaign seemed to underline that Chancellor Merkel's key strengths lay in her unwillingness to take grand political gambles.  View Article

Political

Bruegel/Merler: Is there a path to political union?
Over the last few months and ahead of much anticipated European elections in May 2014, there has been a growing debate about the scope for further integration and leaps towards a form of "political union".  View Article
Reform the EU or repatriate its powers?
In the aftermath of the German elections, several interested parties have started to debate a possible renegotiation of powers between the Member States and the EU.   View Article

Financial

IMF: More fiscal integration to boost euro area resilience
Deeper fiscal integration in the euro area can correct weaknesses in the system's architecture, make the area more resilient to future crises, and provide long-term credibility to crisis-response measures already adopted, argues a new paper by IMF staff.  View Article
ECON Committee: Banking Union tops agenda in discussion with Draghi
The practical details of setting up a single bank resolution system and fund, the upcoming bank balance sheet health checks and next steps for Greece were the key issues ECON Committee MEPs raised with ECB President Draghi.  View Article
ECB/Mersch: Recent policy decisions regarding the Banking Union
Mersch elaborated on the recent policy decisions regarding the development of the Banking Union and their impact on the ECB as a supervisory authority.  View Article
ESRB ASC: The consequences of the SSM for Europe's macro-prudential policy framework
This report argues for a centralised model of macro-prudential policy within the SSM. The ECB would set the framework and apply the necessary tools, in cooperation with national authorities and to the extent those tools are provided in EU law, mainly the CRD IV.  View Article
AFME/Wymeersch: SSM to oversimplify EU prudential regulation
Wymeersch warned that the SSM regulation could have unintended consequences.  View Article
Introductory statement by ECB/Draghi at the ECON Committee hearing
Draghi gave a review of recent economic and monetary developments in the euro area, and then addressed the two topics selected for discussion: the impact of the ECB's non-standard measures; and the new tasks of the ECB in the reformed EMU architecture.  View Article
Ansgar Belke/IZA Bonn: Non-standard monetary policy measures – Magic wand or tiger by the tail?
This briefing paper, prepared for the ECON Committee, briefly assesses the effectiveness of different non-standard monetary policy tools in the euro area. Its main focus is on the OMT programme, praised by some as a "magic wand".  View Article
CEPR/de la Dehesa: Non-standard and unconventional monetary policy measures
De la Dehesa argues that big recessions or depressions cannot be dealt with using standard monetary policy tools. The ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures - SMP, LTRO and "unlimited" OMT and "forward guidance" on interest rates - have been instrumental in avoiding a euro area break up.  View Article
CEPR, Eijffinger et al: The various roles of the ECB in the new EMU architecture
Although the ECB is well-suited to its supervisory role, risks related to conflicts of interest, moral hazard or time inconsistencies may arise, in particular during deep economic-financial crises.  View Article
ECON Committee: Klaus Regling quizzed about wider lending role for European Stability Mechanism
The ESM's current legal set-up would not allow it to become a "backstop" lender to a newly-created EU bank resolution fund, said Regling, although he conceded that he was open to considering other possible legal interpretations which could justify this role for the ESM.  View Article
ECON Committee: Alternatives to austerity would be even more painful, warns ESM chief Klaus Regling
Economic growth is slowly returning to Europe thanks to the EU's response to the crisis, yet countries still have much to do to improve their competitiveness, said Regling.  View Article
Bloomberg: EU mulls €50 billion fund to aid non-euro banks
The EU is weighing whether a €50 billion rescue fund can be turned into a bank backstop for Member States outside the single-currency bloc, two EU officials said.  View Article
Huertas & Nieto: A game-changer - The EU Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive
This column comments on the interaction of the bail-in tool with the proposed resolution funds, and on the effects of the carve-out approach to bail-in.  View Article
Bundesbank/Dombret: Resilient banks – Essential building blocks of a stable financial system
Dombret said that in order to ensure financial stability, resilient banks were required. He highlighted the need to move faster with regard to implementing new rules and standards.  View Article
Bundesbank/Dombret: Five years after Lehman
"We should see the financial system as what it is: a service provider for the real economy. Subscribing to this notion of finance will probably be the most important step toward financial stability."  View Article
Nicolas Véron: Banking nationalism and the European crisis
In Véron's opinion, banking nationalism has been generally under-recognised, both as a driver of European financial fragility in the run-up to the crisis, and as an obstacle to crisis resolution since the crisis started.  View Article

Economic

Reuters: Rehn says Europe must press ahead with economic reforms
Rehn said German Chancellor Merkel's strong showing in her country's election on Sunday demonstrated that Germany's push for economic reforms across the eurozone will continue, something that is critical to the region's health.  View Article
Commissioner De Gucht: Team Europe - What we need for a successful TTIP
De Gucht said that the most difficult but most important goal for the agreement would be to reduce regulatory barriers to trade and investment, although this did not mean a "transatlantic deregulatory free-for-all". (Includes link to TTIP study by Atlantic Council et al.)  View Article
FN: German election results revive FTT threat
With the Free Democrats' defeat, Merkel now faces the prospect of forming a coalition government with the left-leaning Social Democrats, who have publicly stated their support for an FTT.  View Article

Budgetary

EU balks at rule change that could ease austerity
Senior EU finance officials have declined to back a change in budget policies that could have lightened the burden of austerity on Spain and other crisis-hit countries. The change involves a new methodology as to how the Commission calculates the "structural deficit".  View Article
WSJ: Austerity seen easing with change to EU budget policy
European Commission finance officials have tentatively reached an agreement to adjust the way the 'structural deficit' of eurozone countries is calculated. This could allow for an easing of austerity, since more of the deficit could be seen as 'cyclical'.  View Article

Member State events

Reuters: Greece does not need third bailout, seeks debt 'reprofiling' - deputy PM
Greece does not require a third bailout and can cover its needs without further burdening its current backers, by improving the terms of its debt and possibly returning to the bond market next year, the country's deputy PM said.  View Article
Kathimerini: Troika sceptical about Greece's primary surplus
The troika said any surplus this year would be minimal, and was equally sceptical about the 1.5 per cent surplus projected for the end of next year.  View Article
Bruegel/Mody: A new Greek test for Europe
Greece is set to test Europe again, with a vengeance.  View Article
Simon Nixon: Portugal could be cooking up a storm
At the top of the eurozone's list of urgent problems is what to do about Portugal, writes Nixon for the WSJ.  View Article
WSJ: Spain emerges from recession but sees more austerity ahead
"Spain is out of recession but not out of the crisis", PM Rajoy said in an interview with WSJ, cautiously touting the effects of budgetary and structural overhauls that have been among the deepest in the eurozone.  View Article
Reuters: New Italian targets show lack of progress since Berlusconi's fall
More important than the numbers is the fact that Italy's political situation has made no more progress than its economy, dimming prospects for the reforms needed to turn things around.  View Article
Merkel wins German elections by wide margin
Merkel's CDU/CSU were only 5 seats short of an absolute majority in parliament; however, the FDP, their former coalition partner did not win enough votes to get into parliament. The CDU is now expected to seek a grand coalition with the SPD, but talks will be complicated and drawn-out.  View Article
Spiegel: Social Democrats demand new stance on Europe from Merkel
After the federal elections, the SPD has laid down its first conditions for a possible grand coalition, including an end to radical austerity measures in Europe. "This is a policy Merkel will not be able to continue with", said EP President Schulz.  View Article
Merkel's election triumph - reactions
The European press had mixed reactions to Merkel's re-election - some hoped that her European policies, particularly in a grand coalition, might focus less on austerity from now on, but most expected "more of the same". (Includes links to various EC/EP/HOSG messages.)  View Article
Implications and uncertainties after Merkel's election triumph - Commentary review
European commentators at British Influence, the SEJ, Bruegel, Brookings and the FT analyse the uncertainties, European implications and possible coalition scenarios that follow on from the federal election results.  View Article
Peterson Institute/Funk Kirkegaard: What Merkel's victory means for the euro
One of the most politically turbulent periods in modern European history has culminated in one of Germany's most decisive electoral wins with Chancellor Merkel's course and policies for the future of the euro area having been endorsed by the German people.  View Article
Policy Network/Fougier: What is Hollandism?
Will Hollandism be a fudge between the outdated demands of the French left and "Sarkozyism with a human face"? Or will it give shape to a French 'Third Way' in the context of public debt, eurozone crisis and dominance of the "German model"?  View Article
Bloomberg: Italy's Letta says markets underestimate risk of UK leaving EU
A UK exit from the EU would threaten the future of the 28-nation trading bloc, Letta said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.  View Article
UK Parliament: The economic impact of EU membership on the UK
This note examines the various channels through which membership of the EU affects the UK economy.  View Article
Elections in Austria: Right-wing party calls for referendum on ESM
Heinz-Christian Strache, Chairman of Austrian right-wing party FPÖ, has called for a referendum on the eurozone's rescue fund, shortly before the general elections in Austria on 29 September.  View Article





© Graham Bishop

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