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28 March 2019

Brexit Weekly

European Council adopts decision extending Article 50 period, Theresa May offers to quit to get Brexit deal passed, EU completes preparations for possible “no-deal” scenario on 12 April, petition to revoke article 50 signed by 5.8 million people, Anti-Brexit march attracts 1 million and more.

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  Articles from 21 March 2019 - 28 March 2019

  Brexit & UK
Brexit: European Council adopts decision extending the period under Article 50
The European Council (Article 50) today adopted a decision formalising the political agreement reached on 21 March 2019 on extending the period under Article 50.  View Article
Financial Times: Theresa May offers to quit in push to get Brexit deal passed
Theresa May has told Tory MPs she will not stay on as prime minister to oversee future trade talks with the EU, in a last throw of the dice intended to persuade Eurosceptics to back her Brexit deal.  View Article
The Guardian: MPs seize control of Brexit process by backing indicative votes amendment
MPs have inflicted a fresh humiliating defeat on Theresa May, voting to seize control of the parliamentary timetable to allow backbenchers to hold a series of votes on alternatives to her Brexit deal.  View Article
Brexit preparedness: EU completes preparations for possible “no-deal” scenario on 12 April
As it is increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal on 12 April, the European Commission has completed its “no-deal” preparations.  View Article
The Guardian: Secret Cabinet Office document reveals chaotic planning for no-deal Brexit
The extent and range of the impact of a no-deal Brexit is revealed in a confidential Cabinet Office document that warns of a “critical three-month phase” after leaving the EU during which the whole planning operation could be overwhelmed.  View Article
The Guardian: Brexit extension could be until 31 March 2020, EU documents reveal
The EU has pencilled in April Fools’ Day 2020 as a leading option for Britain’s first day outside the bloc, should the UK government ask Brussels for a lengthy extension of article 50 in three weeks’ time, it can be revealed.  View Article
Bloomberg: Theresa May wields threat of ‘slow Brexit’ in final bid for support
Theresa May has long threatened members of Parliament with the risk of no-deal, or no Brexit. She just added a new one - the danger of a “slow Brexit.”  View Article
The Guardian: Government rejects Brexit petition to revoke article 50 signed by 5.8 million people
The British government has rejected a petition calling for Brexit to be stopped, which gathered more than 5.8 million signatures.  View Article
Public Law for Everyone: Revoking Article 50: Legislating to take a no-deal Brexit off the table
Professor Mark Elliott discusses the legal option for revoking Article 50 — a possibility that has risen up the political agenda in recent days, not least in the light of a petition signed by approximately 5.5 million people.  View Article
POLITICO: Anti-Brexit march attracts 1 million, say organizers
An estimated 1 million people attended a march in London calling for the British people to have another vote on Brexit.  View Article
NatCen: British public unhappy about Brexit negotiations, with Leavers and Remainers equally critical
New data from the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) reveals significant shifts in attitudes to the government’s handling of the Brexit negotiation process. 80% of Leave voters and 85% of Remain voters believe the government is handling Britain’s exit badly.  View Article
Statement on technical adjustments to financial services contingency measures to reflect the Decision of the European Council of 22 March
To reflect the decision of the European Council on 22 March, taken in agreement with the United Kingdom, to extend the period under Article 50 (3) TEU , the Commission will ensure that the equivalence decisions adopted on 19 December 2018 in relation to UK CCPs and CSDs reflect this extension.  View Article
CFTC provides further Brexit-related market certainty
CFTC passed by unanimous vote a provision to provide greater certainty to the global marketplace in the event of a "no-deal Brexit" precipitated by the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union without a negotiated withdrawal agreement.  View Article
FCA to introduce UK Benchmarks Register
FCA continues to plan for a range of outcomes in relation to Brexit, including the UK leaving the EU without an implementation period. To prepare for this scenario, FCA has developed a new UK Benchmarks Register.   View Article
Insurance Europe: EU insurers publish no-deal Brexit checklist
Insurance Europe has published a checklist regarding the insurance implications of a no-deal Brexit.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: Rated UK insurers well prepared for Brexit, says Best
UK insurers rated by AM Best are generally well prepared for Brexit, even a no-deal Brexit, according to the ratings agency, despite the uncertainty over the terms and timing of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: Gibraltar issues no-deal Brexit guidance for financial services sector
The Government of Gibraltar has issued guidance for companies in the territory’s financial services sector in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Government of Gibraltar said it intends to use powers in the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2019 (EUWA) to ensure that Gibraltar continues to have a functioning financial services regulatory regime in all scenarios.  View Article
Financial Times: Banks ramp up plans for ‘hard Brexit’
JPMorgan Chase has sent new EU employment contracts to more than 200 London-based staff in recent days while Royal Bank of Scotland is gearing up to begin serving clients at its new Dutch entity, as banks intensify preparations for a “hard Brexit”.   View Article
Financial Times: Finance sector hopes for smooth Brexit, plans for the worst
Two years after the UK’s historic vote to quit the EU, the Financial Times asked senior finance executives which big Brexit risks were still on the table. A year later, things have improved only slightly.  View Article
Financial services optimism plunges at the fastest pace since the Crisis – CBI/PwC
Sentiment and volumes are deteriorating sharply in the financial services sector, with various indicators at their lowest since the Financial Crisis of 2008, according to the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey.  View Article
Financial Times: Financial sector remains exposed to no-deal Brexit, warns FCA
A no-deal Brexit still presents risks to the financial sector and its customers, despite worst-case contingency plans enacted over the past two years, a senior watchdog has warned.  View Article
EurActiv: Brexit ‘not imminent risk to financial stability’, says bank watchdog
Despite the volatility that would trigger the UK’s departure from the EU, Brexit does not represent an “imminent risk” to financial stability, according to Single Resolution Board President Elke König.  View Article
Bloomberg: ECB’s Rehn says Brexit poses biggest short-term risk
The possible Brexit fallout poses the biggest short-term danger for the economy and financial markets appear to “underestimate the risk,” European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said in an interview with Die Welt.  View Article
Commercial Risk: New York, London and Hong Kong are top three financial centres
New York is still the leading financial centre in the world, followed by London and Hong Kong, according to the 25th Global Financial Centres Index, published by Z/Yen Partners and the China Development Institute.  View Article
Financial Times: Bank of England holds interest rates as Brexit clouds outlook
The Bank of England remained in “wait and see” mode at its March interest rates meeting, indicating that uncertainties over Brexit were too great to provide a clear guide to the forces shaping the economy.  View Article
Bertelsmann Stiftung: Brexit to cost EU citizens up to 40 billion euros annually
The study shows that the British would have to shoulder the biggest income losses after Brexit. But in export-oriented countries like Germany and France, Brexit would cost citizens billions of euros. The US and China, on the other hand, could even benefit from the British withdrawal.  View Article
LSE: UK economy since the Brexit vote: slower GDP growth, lower productivity, and a weaker pound
Evidence of the UK’s economic performance since the EU Referendum is clear: GDP growth has slowed down, productivity has suffered, the pound has depreciated and purchasing power has gone down, and investments have declined, according to analysis by Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra.  View Article
Bruegel: The shadow of Brexit: Guessing the economic damage to the UK
This post concludes that UK real income and investment would have been 4% and 6% larger respectively had it not been for the shock of the Brexit referendum result.   View Article
Bloomberg: UK business warns of ‘Brexit emergency’ as no-deal risk grows
The UK’s biggest business lobby group took the rare step of joining forces with labor unions to warn Theresa May that she’s presiding over a “national emergency” on Brexit.  View Article
Financial Times: Sovereign wealth funds cut UK investment ahead of Brexit
Dealmaking in the UK by some of the largest sovereign wealth funds has plummeted because of the growing uncertainty around Brexit, a report from IE Business School in Madrid has revealed.  View Article
Business Insider: Brexit trade deals will be worse than current EU deals, says Liam Fox's former trade chief
Countries are likely to offer the United Kingdom worse trade deals than it currently enjoys as an EU member, the former head of Liam Fox's International Trade Department has told Business Insider.  View Article
The Guardian: UK secures post-Brexit trade deal with group of Caribbean countries
The UK has signed a post-Brexit trade deal with a group of Caribbean countries including Jamaica and Barbados. The push to tie up rollover deals now covers about one third of UK’s £117bn annual trade.  View Article
Vox EU: EU-UK global value chain trade and the indirect costs of Brexit
This column describes how the effect of tariffs will be magnified due to back-and-forth trade across the Channel. This will increase production costs in the UK and, to a lesser extent, in the EU.  View Article
Bloomberg: Brexit end likely to be based on a customs union, JPMorgan says
The realities of the Brexit situation indicate that the UK is going to end up with “something that’s founded on a customs union” with the European Union, according to Karen Ward, chief market strategist for Europe, Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Asset Management.  View Article
The Independent: Brexit is ruining Britain’s reputation in Europe
Watching on from Brussels, EU leaders are getting the impression Britain can't be trusted to act responsibly, says Europe Correspondent Jon Stone.  View Article
House of Lords: The Brexit paradox: UK will need to increase its presence in Brussels significantly
The report analyses the formal governance arrangements set out in the Withdrawal Agreement for future UK-EU cooperation, and considers how these can be complemented by less formal means of exercising influence in Brussels once the UK leaves the EU.   View Article
Financial Times: Brexit is part of a wider European struggle
Gideon Rachman writes that all of the EU’s big six countries are facing deep internal divisions.  View Article
LSE: Not all the ‘over 65s’ are in favour of Brexit – Britain’s wartime generation are almost as pro-EU as millennials
Kieran Devine writes that, while ‘over 65s’ are typically treated as a single category in opinion polls, there are substantial generational differences within this group, with those who lived through the Second World War being far more likely to oppose Brexit.  View Article
YouGov: Britons scramble to Brexit-proof their finances
With increasing uncertainty on the horizon people are saving more, seeking better deals on mortgages and insurance and cutting down on takeaways and shopping – but they refuse to sacrifice holidays, according to YouGov research.  View Article
UK Parliament: Immigration Bill strips EU citizens in UK of rights after Brexit
Immigration Bill strips EU citizens living in the UK of their rights after Brexit with no guarantees to replace them, says UK Parliament Human Rights Committee.  View Article
Il Sole 24 Ore: Italy's transition period
The Italian government has published a decree-law on urgent measures that aim to ensure financial stability and market integrity in case of a hard Brexit.   View Article

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