· Unsurprisingly, interest rates unchanged at 3 September meeting, with ECB's 'refi', deposit and lending rates at 1.0%, 0.25% and 1.75% respectively for fifth month running.
· ECB's economic analysis similar to last month's but increasingly confident about resumption of (fitful) growth in 2010, with inflation positive but subdued.
· Staff's new macro projections show significant upward revision (to +0.2% from -0.3%) of GDP growth for 2010 but a modest increase in projected inflation (from 1.0% to 1.2%).
· Net new lending to households remains positive, while lending to corporations expected to weaken further until economy picks up and lower market interest rates feed through.
EZA Conclusion: ECB's latest assessment further confirms us in our view - stated for several months now - that interest rates are set to stay on hold well into 2010 and that the next move, probably not before mid-year, will be up, not down, when an exit strategy of 'natural wastage' will be initiated, allowing enhanced credit support measures to run off gradually at maturity.
Please see attached our regular post-meeting analysis and conclusions from John Arrowsmith
John Arrowsmith: ECB / Regulatory
Tel: +44 7720 59 1726
john.arrowsmith@eurozoneadvisors.com
Discussion Partners
John Arrowsmith: ECB / Regulatory
Tel: +44 7720 59 1726
john.arrowsmith@eurozoneadvisors.com
Dr Michael Clauss: Germany Politics / Economy / Equities Sectoral Analysis
Tel: +49 89 64254046
michael.clauss@eurozoneadvisors.com
Jacques Lafitte: France Politics / Brussels
Tel: +32 473 934 664
© EZA
Documents associated with this article
|
|
EZA912.pdf
|
Key
Hover over the blue highlighted
text to view the acronym meaning
Hover
over these icons for more information
Comments:
No Comments for this Article