‘Significant’ drop in trade seen between UK and most EU states; Ireland had large drop in imports from UK, no export impact
Brexit resulted in a “substantial negative impact” for trade in both
directions between the European Union and the UK, according to Ireland’s
Economic and Social Research Institute.
Trade from UK to the EU
dropped 16% while there was a 20% decline in trade from the EU to the
UK, compared to a no-Brexit scenario, the ESRI said in a working paper
published Wednesday. The analysis looked at product-level data on goods
trade flows for 2021 -- the first full year of the UK’s withdrawal from
the bloc.
“Across EU member states, we find that Brexit has
led to a significant decline in trade with the UK in almost all cases
although by varying magnitudes,” authors Janez Kren and Martina Lawless
wrote.
For most countries the drop in imports and
exports was similar, though Ireland stands out has having had a
particularly large decline in imports from the UK, they said.
Meanwhile,
there has been “no notable impact to date” on exports from Ireland to
the UK. This may be partly attributable to increased trade between
Ireland and Northern Ireland, they added.
The research used a premise for comparison that
trade with the UK should have been expected to grow at a similar pace to
trade with other EU partner countries around the world.
Although
EU-UK trade recovered in value terms after a fall in early 2021, it is
“well below” what would have been expected if it had performed on a
comparable level with other trade partners, the report said....
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