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19 December 2019

Brexit Weekly

Boris Johnson wins huge majority and will rule out further extension of transition period, European Council President says EU is ‘ready’ for trade talks, Bank of England says UK financial system could weather a disorderly Brexit and more.


We are moving into the end-game of Brexit - even Council President Tusk is urging the Remainers to keep fighting into the penalty shoot-out!

If you are interested in European finance, we are targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation - including ESG and Fin Tech. Details of these services are here

My video invitation to the 158th Brussels for Breakfast on 14th January 2020 is here. Some seats are available at the live meeting at CISI, and I would be delighted to hear suggestions for topics that should be covered. E-mail me:

This is the last weekly of the year, so Merry Christmas from the team, and a very happy 2020!
We will be back on January 9th.

Articles from 12 December 2019 - 19 December 2019

Bank of England: Stress testing the UK banking system: 2019 results : The 2019 stress test shows the UK banking system is resilient to deep simultaneous recessions in the UK and global economies that are more severe overall than the global financial crisis. The core of UK financial system could also face a worst-case disorderly Brexit, says the report. View Article
The Guardian: Net migration from EU into UK at lowest level since 2003, ONS says : Net migration from the EU into the UK is at its lowest level since before the bloc was enlarged to take in countries including Poland and Lithuania, figures suggest. View Article
Boris Johnson - Foreign Policy
The Guardian: Boris Johnson wins huge majority on promise to 'get Brexit done' : Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, secured a crushing victory in the UK’s general election as voters backed his promise to “get Brexit done” and take the country out of the European Union by 31 January next year. View Article
The Guardian: Johnson is warned his big win will not speed up Brexit deal : The PM’s majority won’t help him achieve his aims in the time frame he set himself, former ambassador to EU Sir Ivan Rogers says. View Article
BBC: Brexit bill to rule out extension to transition period : The government is to add a new clause to the Brexit bill to rule out any extension to the transition period beyond the end of next year. View Article
The Independent: Battle for UK to remain in the EU is now lost and rejoining won't be prospect for 20 years, admits Lord Heseltine : The battle for UK membership of the European Union is lost and the question will not be reopened for 20 years, Europhile former deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine has said. View Article
Federal Trust: Brexit: The end of the beginning : Brendan Donnelly analyses the General Election results and what led to them. He foresees considerable and probably insoluble problems for Boris Johnson in the 2020 Brexit negotiations. He suggests that Lord Heseltine’s prediction of twenty years before the UK rejoins the EU may be too pessimistic View Article
The Independent: Election result: 52% of votes go to pro-referendum parties despite decisive victory for the Tories : Analysis of election vote share reveals nearly 52% supported parties in favour of a Final Say vote such as Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP, compared with 47% who supported Brexit-backing parties, such as the Tories and the DUP. View Article
European Council (Art.50) conclusions : On 13 December 2019 the Special European Council (Art. 50) adopted conclusions on Brexit. View Article
POLITICO: EU ‘ready’ for trade talks after UK election, says Charles Michel : The EU is "ready for the next steps" on Brexit following the UK general election result, said European Council President Charles Michel. View Article
Financial Times: Britain says EU trade deal will be brokered by end of 2020 : Boris Johnson insists he can broker a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 even as Brussels ramps up warnings that it may be impossible to complete the negotiations in time, creating the risk of an economic “cliff edge”. View Article
The Guardian: UK not 'match fit' for Brexit talks, says former May aide : Raoul Ruparel said that Whitehall is not ready to negotiate a wide-ranging agreement with the EU. View Article
POLITICO: David Davis: UK will diverge from EU trade rules : Prime Minister Boris Johnson will diverge from EU trade rules once the UK leaves the bloc, especially in emerging industries, former Brexit Secretary David Davis said. View Article
The Guardian: UK must be loyal on standards in return for market access – Macron : French PM Emmanuel Macron has warned Boris Johnson that the UK must remain “loyal” to EU standards post-Brexit for British companies to maintain access to the European market. View Article
Financial Times: The EU must rethink its approach to UK trade talks : Brussels was wrong to treat Brexit as a threat, rather than grasping it as an opportunity, writes Wolfgang Münchau. View Article
Ursula Von der Leyen - EurActiv
Financial Times: Brussels warns UK will suffer more from lack of EU trade deal : Britain will suffer more than the EU if the two sides cannot broker a trade deal by the end of next year, the president of the European Commission has warned in a response to Boris Johnson after the UK prime minister ruled out extending talks. View Article
LSE: High hopes, long odds - On the false promises of Brexiteer deals with the EU and US : This report explores a No-Deal Brexit which would leave the UK economically, politically and diplomatically weakened and isolated. It further examines the relationships with its two main allies - the European Union and the United States - which would become more difficult and complicated. View Article
BBC: Brexit: Free trade deals 'won't offset leaving EU' : Post-Brexit trade deals will not make up for the economic damage inflicted on the UK from leaving the EU, analysis for BBC Newsnight has suggested. View Article
Financial Times: EU confirms one-year Brexit reprieve for clearing houses : The EU has confirmed it will grant the derivatives industry more time to prepare for a potential no-deal Brexit, saying that emergency access to crucial UK market infrastructure would last for one year after Britain drops out of the bloc. View Article
The Guardian: UK manufacturing output falling at fastest rate since 2009, says CBI : Manufacturing output in the UK tumbled this month at the fastest rate since the 2008 financial crisis as uncertainty surrounding Britain’s trading relationship with the EU and the outcome of the general election hit domestic and foreign orders. View Article
BBC: General election 2019: Blair attacks Corbyn's 'comic indecision' on Brexit : Labour "pursued a path of almost comic indecision" over Brexit during the election and "alienated both sides of the debate", Tony Blair has said. View Article
John Ryan: Why a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal is under threat from the Irish-American lobby : LSE Professor John Ryan highlights the fact that many of the US Congress’ most important officials have sided with the Irish on backstop concerns and against the British government on a potential trade deal. View Article
John Ryan: British exceptionalism causes Brexit conundrum : This paper examines the shortcomings in the UK government’s Brexit negotiation strategy which reflected PM May’s weak political leadership which focused on securing the short-term political survival of her government amidst turbulent and fractious domestic politics, over negotiations with the EU27.  View Article
Graham Bishop #FBPE Graham Bishop #FBPE
Here's my video invitation to 158th Brussels for Breakfast, in which i suggest - and request - ideas for the next #B4B debate on January 14th 2020. With my best wishes for a happy Xmas!
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Replying to @politico
The House voted to impeach President Donald Trump, branding him as only the third president in U.S. history to face such a harsh punishment from Congress
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Michel Barnier Michel Barnier
“Our new relationship should be as close as possible. For the sake of all Europeans who stretched their lives across the Channel” Pres @vonderleyen @Europarl_EN The future EU-UK partnership will clearly be different. But the EU will never fall short on common ambition.
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Federal Trust Federal Trust
4/4 "Pessimism is premature. An effective Labour leader, working with the SNP and Liberal Democrats, (could) expose the damaging compromises Johnson will be forced to accept if he is to have any longer-term agreement on trade and security with the EU."
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Federal Trust Federal Trust
3/4 "The now inevitable British withdrawal from the EU in early 2020 creates, however, a new situation in which those who sought to prevent Brexit will need to choose between accommodation and resistance." @Brendandonn…
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
Ursula von der Leyen says Brexit timetable "extremely challenging" and "we will face a cliff edge situation" if no deal by 2020. She said no deal "will harm the UK more than us" as the EU will continue to benefit from single market, customs union and 700+ intl agreements.
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Sky News Sky News
No-deal is back on the table as PM plans to beef up his Brexit legislation to outlaw delays to the transition period beyond 2020
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
The U.K. government will introduce its Brexit bill to Parliament on December 20
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
U.N. climate negotiations ended in disarray, exposing deep rifts among industrialized nations, fast-growing economies like China and India and the poorest countries
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
The Brexit choice to come, spelt out by Emmanuel Macron. "If Boris Johnson wants a very ambitious trade deal, there has to be very ambitious regulatory convergence. Be me guest.”…
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Fabian Zuleeg Fabian Zuleeg
Many UK commentators/politicians seem to believe that this domestic victory gives the UK more leverage in the phase 2 negotiations. It does not. EU27 won't change approach & it is still the UK that needs a phase 2 deal more
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Siraj Datoo Siraj Datoo
Jo Swinson started the campaign telling @SophyRidgeSky that she was a candidate to be Prime Minister. Now she's no longer even an MP
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
Jeremy Corbyn said he will stand down as leader of the U.K.’s opposition Labour Party after a comprehensive rejection of his bid to lead the country
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
BREAKING: Boris Johnson wins a decisive U.K. election with his promise to deliver Brexit, a vote marking the biggest political shifts in decades

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