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31 January 2019

Brexit Weekly

MPs back May's bid to change deal, Risk of no-deal Brexit ‘very high’, time running out to replicate more than 30 international trade deals, UK firms plan mass exodus if May allows no-deal Brexit, money flooding out of The City, Bank of America to begin Brexit job moves and more.

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  Articles from 24 January 2019 - 31 January 2019

  Brexit & UK
BBC: Brexit: MPs back May's bid to change deal
MPs have backed seeking "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in Theresa May's Brexit plan.   View Article
The Independent: Brussels says UK should keep paying into EU budget after no-deal
Britain would keep paying into the EU budget for years after a no-deal Brexit under contingency plans drawn up by the European Commission.  View Article
POLITICO: European Parliament would veto Brexit deal without backstop, say MEPs
Senior EU legislators say they would not consent to a deal that does not contain an insurance against a hard border in Northern Ireland.  View Article
The Independent: EU would rather no-deal Brexit than abandon Irish backstop, Theresa May told
Theresa May has been warned the EU will settle for a no-deal Brexit rather than abandon the Irish backstop, as Brussels ramped up its refusal to reopen talks.  View Article
The Guardian: Juncker warns May: permanent customs union is price for revisiting backstop
Jean-Claude Juncker has told Theresa May in a private phone call that shifting her red lines in favour of a permanent customs union is the price she will need to pay for the EU revising the Irish backstop.  View Article
The Guardian: Ireland dismisses suggestion it should quit EU and join UK
Ireland has dismissed the suggestion that the best solution to the Brexit impasse might be for the country to quit the EU and join the UK.  View Article
Financial Times: Ireland central bank warns of ‘immense’ threat of no-deal Brexit
Ireland’s central bank has warned of “immense” economic threats from a no-deal Brexit, saying the “worst-case” scenario for Dublin was a disorderly UK departure from the EU.   View Article
The Guardian: Northern Ireland business leaders press MPs to back Brexit deal
Leaders from Northern Ireland’s business, farming and community groups have launched a last-ditch campaign to try to persuade opponents of Theresa May’s Brexit deal and the Irish border backstop to reconsider.  View Article
The Sun: Theresa May ‘privately told Cabinet ministers she will rule out No Deal’
The Sun has learnt that the Prime Minister will not let Britain leave the EU without a deal, but she is not ready to rule out no deal in public because it would affect key negotiations with Brussels.  View Article
The Guardian: Risk of no-deal Brexit ‘very high’, says key EU negotiator
The risk of accidentally crashing out of the EU without a deal has been described as “very high” by a key EU architect of the Brexit deal, with parliamentary backing for changes to the backstop likely to be met with a brick wall in Brussels.  View Article
Bloomberg: Postponing Brexit would be worse for UK economy Than May’s deal
While extending the negotiating period set to expire on March 29 would remove the imminent possibility of a chaotic no-deal scenario, it would leave the UK worse off than if Parliament accepted Prime Minister Theresa May’s current plan, according to economists.  View Article
Euronews: No deal may be better than extending Brexit negotiations: Lithuanian president
A No Deal Brexit could be better than extending the "chaos" of negotiations over the UK's departure from the European Union, Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaitė has told Euronews.  View Article
Bloomberg: No-deal Brexit risk recedes as calls grow to delay divorce
The risk of a no-deal Brexit appears to be receding after calls for a delay to the UK’s exit from the European Union won powerful backing in London and other EU capitals. The pound rose.  View Article
The Guardian: No-deal Brexit will disrupt UK economy, says Philip Hammond
Philip Hammond has warned of significant disruption to the UK economy if Britain leaves the EU without a deal in March, but has said a no-deal Brexit was “a default that we could find ourselves in”.  View Article
The Guardian: No-deal Brexit: UK firms 'praying' for article 50 extension, says KPMG
British firms are “praying for an extension to article 50” rather than face a no-deal Brexit as it emerged that foreign investment has fallen steeply and the outlook for growth has slumped to a six-year low.  View Article
The Guardian: Global slowdown threatens to worsen impact of no-deal Brexit
Britain is preparing for Brexit in little over two months against a backdrop of faltering domestic growth and a global economic slowdown, which threatens to compound the consequences of a no-deal exit, according to Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.  View Article
CBI sets out business impact of a 'no deal' Brexit in every region and nation across the UK
CBI analysis of government figures underlines importance of ‘no deal’ being taken off the table to prevent economic fallout and protect jobs and living standards.   View Article
Bloomberg: It’s a cruel world for UK companies weighing no-deal Brexit
Britain needs to replicate more than 30 trade deals with countries around the world and time is running out.  View Article
UK Government publishes list of Brexit-related treaties
The Rt Hon. Stephen Barclay MP, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, wrote to the Lords EU Committee providing an update on Government’s plans to lay Brexit-related international agreements before Parliament.  View Article
POLITICO: Le Maire: Up to Britain to find a way through Brexit impasse
It is "clearly on the shoulders of the British government" to secure a stable Brexit deal, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said, insisting that the EU has "nothing more to give" on the Withdrawal Agreement.  View Article
The Independent: No-deal Brexit would ruin UK's chances of getting any free trade deals, Irish PM Varadkar warns
Leo Varadkar says UK 'won't have any trade deals with anyone', citing WTO rules and Good Friday commitments.  View Article
The Guardian: UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit, say experts
The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.  View Article
CER: The cost of Brexit to September 2018
The UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £17 billion per annum – or £320 million a week.   View Article
YouGov: Consumer confidence at five-year low as Brexit concerns persist
Consumer confidence dropped 0.1 points to 104.3 in January as Brexit uncertainty continued into the New Year. It is now sitting at a low not seen since May 2013, according to the latest analysis from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.  View Article
The Guardian: UK firms plan mass exodus if May allows no-deal Brexit
Thousands of British companies have already triggered emergency plans to cope with a no-deal Brexit, with many gearing up to move operations abroad if the UK crashes out of the EU, according to the British Chambers of Commerce.  View Article
Bloomberg: Money is flooding out of London while the UK bickers over Brexit
The UK parliament can’t agree on how to leave the European Union, but many finance firms have already decided how much money to move out of the City of London - a shift that’s seen by some as irreversible.  View Article
Bloomberg: UBS will keep equity trading in London after Brexit
UBS Group AG’s equity trading venue is staying in London after Brexit, despite rivals accelerating plans to shift trading to elsewhere in Europe.  View Article
Bloomberg: Bank of America to begin Brexit job moves next month
Bank of America Corp. will start moving about 400 staff, mostly from London, to its Paris office in the next few weeks as the bank prepares for Brexit, according to a person familiar with the matter.  View Article
Bloomberg: Citigroup’s Brexit warning for London
Behind the Davos platitudes, Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat makes a veiled threat about Brexit’s impact on London’s position as a financial center.  View Article
Bloomberg: Banks boost protections for sterling loans in Brexit shadow
The intensification of Brexit woes hasn’t entirely deterred banks from drawing up sterling deals in Europe’s leveraged loan market, but arrangers are cushioning themselves with additional protection.  View Article
Financial Times: UK financial watchdogs seek to shore up post-Brexit EU accords
The UK’s two financial regulators are negotiating agreements with European authorities so that they can continue to share information in the event of a no-deal Brexit.  View Article
ICAEW: Brexit and IFRS 9 Financial instruments – expected credit losses
Although IFRS 9 is already applicable, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to the UK leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. The ICAEW´s guide outlines some considerations to help banks and others, including auditors and internal auditors, approach these challenges before Brexit.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: UK and Switzerland sign post-Brexit insurance pact
An agreement between the UK and Switzerland signed at the World Economic Forum (WEF) will allow buyers in both countries to access insurance cover from providers in each other’s jurisdictions after Brexit.  View Article
Sky News: Queen calls for 'coming together to seek out common ground' as MPs battle over Brexit
The Queen has extolled the virtues of "respecting different points of view" and "coming together to seek out the common ground", amid bitter divisions among MPs over Brexit.  View Article
The Guardian: 'Meaner and angrier': Brexit exposes growing fractures in UK society
Britons have become angrier since the referendum to leave the EU, according to a survey which suggests there is widespread unhappiness about the direction in which the country is heading.  View Article
Financial Times: Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity hurt by Brexit stance, poll finds
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s reputation with voters has taken a severe knock since the Brexit referendum, according to polling by research agency BritainThinks.   View Article
The Guardian: Jeremy Corbyn ally dents Labour hopes of push for second referendum
A senior ally of Jeremy Corbyn has said holding a second EU referendum could badly affect the relationship between politicians and the public, as a series of Labour backbenchers tabled new amendments seeking such an option.  View Article
BBC: Brexit: David Miliband puts case for new referendum
Ex-Foreign Secretary David Miliband has called for a fresh Brexit referendum, saying it should not only be an option "when everything else has failed".  View Article
POLITICO: Guy Verhofstadt: UK cross-party effort could stop Brexit
Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's "Mr. Brexit," is holding out hope that a cross-party group of British lawmakers will stop Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal and potentially help trigger a second referendum.  View Article
Bloomberg: UK could avoid $1.5 billion EU tax bill on no-deal Brexit
A no-deal Brexit could create yet another headache for the European Union as it prepares to hand dozens of UK-based companies a tax bill that is expected to top $1.5 billion.  View Article
New Europe: Commission refers UK to Europe’s court of justice over tax breaks for commodities traders
In response to the City of London creating VAT loophole, the European Commission has opted to take the case to the European Court of Justice which could escalate into a battle that, according to the UK, could harm the City of London’s competitiveness once the UK is out of the EU.  View Article
The Guardian: Brexit stockpiling by UK retailers and wholesalers reaching 2008 levels, says CBI
Britain’s biggest retailers and wholesalers have raised their stockpiling efforts to the highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, according to a key industry report, with little more than 60 days to go before Brexit.  View Article
POLITICO: Marine Le Pen backs Britain’s membership in ‘reformed’ EU
France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen said that she would support the UK re-entering a reformed version of the European Union.  View Article
The Guardian: French firms with UK ties told to look for alternatives as Brexit looms
French businesses working with British contractors or suppliers should now be actively seeking out alternatives, the French government has said, as it further ramped up preparations for a no-deal Brexit that it sees as increasingly likely.  View Article
Bloomberg: Yellow vest fears steer Macron against no-deal Brexit
French diplomats are privately warning of the damage a no-deal Brexit would do to the country’s rural economy, as the impact of protests against President Emmanuel Macron starts shaping the European Union’s strategy ahead of bloc-wide elections.  View Article
ICAEW: Irish third county draft registration application
Auditors of UK companies (ie companies incorporated in the UK) with listings on the Irish Stock Exchange, (such as listed debt), will be required to register with IAASA as third country auditors from 30 March 2019; when the UK leaves the EU.  View Article

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