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27 February 2020

Brexit Weekly


Council gives go-ahead for talks to start and adopts negotiating directives, Barnier says Brexit deal will be ‘difficult’, Emmanuel Macron 'not sure' trade deal possible by end of year, UNCTAD warns Post-Brexit UK exports could fall by $32 billion due to non-tariff measures and tariffs and more.

 

Our new e-mail service now provides direct access to the underlying articles - with links that are live for the next seven days. If you wish to acces older articles, you will need access codes from office@grahambishop.com. I had hoped that there would be no need to continue this service but, sadly, that is not the case as the negotiations will drag on for a long time. So we will soon be introducing a small monthly charge - unless you are subscribing to our Gold service.

I have just published a new paper "Negotiating with a bloc seven times your size: Clash no 1 – Financial Services" link. I trust that it is not too technical ... "The UK will not be at the table when the EU debates reversing a key concession to the UK after the Great Financial Crash. Very technical – Yes, but very significant!"

If you are interested in European finance, we are targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation - including ESG and Fin Tech. Details of these services are here

Articles from 20 February 2020 - 27 February 2020
 
EU-UK relations: Council gives go-ahead for talks to start and adopts negotiating directives : The Council adopted a decision authorising the opening of negotiations for a new partnership with the UK, and formally nominating the Commission as EU negotiator. The Council also adopted negotiating directives which constitute a mandate to the Commission for the negotiations. View Article
Michel Barnier - EurActiv
EurActiv: Brexit deal will be ‘difficult’, Barnier says as ministers agree mandate : The EU and UK formally agreed their negotiating mandates for talks on a new trade and political partnership, setting the stage for a bruising battle on regulatory standards. View Article
The Guardian: Emmanuel Macron 'not sure' trade deal possible by end of year : French president Emmanuel Macron said he was “not sure” it would be possible for the European Union and Britain to reach a trade deal by the end of the year. View Article
The Independent: No-deal Brexit threat ramped up as No 10 says Boris Johnson will prioritise a clean break from EU : Downing Street has ramped up expectations of a no-deal Brexit by saying that Boris Johnson will prioritise a clean break from EU regulations and courts over smooth trade in upcoming talks with Brussels. View Article
UNCTAD: Post-Brexit UK exports could fall by $32 billion due to non-tariff measures and tariffs : Non-tariff measures (NTMs) could cause major fractures in post-exit trade relations between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), knocking up to US$32 billion, or 14 per cent, off of UK exports to the EU, according to a new UNCTAD study. View Article
City AM: French minister warns against London 'blackmail' as second stage of Brexit talks near : France will not be “blackmailed” into a rushed trade deal between the UK and EU, an Elysee minister has warned, as Brussels prepares to publish its negotiating mandate for the next stage of Brexit talks. View Article
Amelie de Montchalin - The Times
Project Syndicate: Brexit’s stealthy rationality : The motives and thinking behind Brexit were even less worthy than those behind US President Richard Nixon’s move in 1971 to ditch the Bretton Woods system, writes Yanis Varoufakis. But, as with the "Nixon shock," there is a singular underlying historical factor that explains Brexit. View Article
Project Syndicate: The end of the EU’s Brexit bounce : After years of watching the United Kingdom muddle through a political crisis while enjoying an unprecedented level of unity among themselves, Europeans now must prepare for darker days. Negotiations over the future UK-EU relationship will inevitably divide Europeans and offer fodder to Eurosceptics. View Article
True Publica: UK government not threatening ‘Singapore on Thames’ but ‘Cayman on steroids’ : The FT reports that the UK has jumped up the global rankings for financial secrecy, highlighting long-held concerns about its connection to territories vulnerable to use by terrorists, money launderers and tax evaders and that the UK increased its “secrecy score” more than any other country in the world last year. But it doesn’t end there. View Article
Financial Times: JPMorgan Chase in talks to launch digital bank in UK : JPMorgan Chase is in talks with London regulators about launching a digital bank in the UK this year, a person familiar with the discussions said.  View Article
Confederation of British Industry: Let firms concentrate on jobs and growth by limiting red tape : As the UK and EU prepare to negotiate their new economic relationship, the CBI has set out a series of practical business priorities for the UK-EU FTA that will help the British economy thrive outside the EU, supporting jobs and investment across the country.  View Article
Vox EU: Brexit uncertainty has fallen since the UK general election : This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel to show that Brexit-related uncertainty has fallen since the election. However substantial uncertainty remains around the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU.  View Article
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
<a href=FT Brussels" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/931157406360449024/uendSDG1_normal.jpg" /> FT Brussels
@ftbrussels
Top City bosses reject post-Brexit ‘Singapore on Thames’ on.ft.com/3cdEYbm
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
@Brexit
Boris Johnson's office says only full independence from EU rules will do—and the U.K. is willing to walk away from talks if necessary trib.al/t4q7BF2
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
UNCTAD UNCTAD
@UNCTAD
#Brexit: New UNCTAD estimates show that the UK ???? risks losing up to 14% ($32 billion) of its exports to the EU ????. bit.ly/BrexitNTMs pic.twitter.com/krDpuwXPli
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
@Brexit
“The trade deal will be associated with a fisheries agreement and a level playing field, otherwise there won’t be any agreement at all" trib.al/nkR4lTC
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Ursula von der Leyen Ursula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen
? Mandate approved. Ready to go. Negotiations with the #UK will begin the week of 2nd March. We stand ready to build a close, ambitious partnership with the UK. This is good for people, good for business. #NewBeginnings ????????
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
European Commission ???? European Commission ????
@EU_Commission
We welcome the @EUCouncil's decision today to authorise the opening of the future partnership negotiations with the UK. Read more → europa.eu/!hr49uy #NewBeginnings ???????? pic.twitter.com/paf1qrQwnQ
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
Now official: EU ministers have just adopted Michel Barnier's negotiating mandate, meaning talks can begin next week.
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
<a href=FT Brussels" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/931157406360449024/uendSDG1_normal.jpg" /> FT Brussels
@ftbrussels
UK lays down red line for Brexit trade talks on.ft.com/2TcbBha
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
@Brexit
U.K. immigration overhaul could harm small businesses already struggling with Brexit and recruitment, warns industry group trib.al/bNIJyEl
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
France's Europe minister: "Just because Boris Johnson wants an agreement at any cost doesn't mean we will sign a bad deal for the French, under pressure of blackmail or the timetable." France will not sacrifice, she says, French fishermen, farmers or companies. twitter.com/AdeMontchalin/…
 

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