In 2022, the number of people saying that the UK’s relationship with the EU was one of the most important issues facing the country continued to fall: in fifth place in the public’s list of concerns in January, and out of the top 10 altogether by the end of the year.
Sophie Stowers and Alan Wager look back on a year in Brexit, using the UK in a Changing Europe/Redfield and Wilton Strategies Brexit tracker poll to highlight five key trends in attitudes to Brexit in 2022.
From 2016 through to the 2019 general election, Brexit dominated
British politics. Since then, myriad crises – some global, others
created in Westminster – have driven political events. In 2022, the
number of people saying that the UK’s relationship with the EU was one
of the most important issues facing the country continued to fall: in fifth place in the public’s list of concerns in January, and out of the top 10 altogether by the end of the year.
That being said, recent evidence
of a growing number saying that leaving the EU was the wrong decision
has triggered some debates about where attitudes to Brexit are likely to
go next.
Using our regular Brexit Tracker which measures public sentiment across all aspects of Brexit, here we highlight five key trends in attitudes to Brexit in 2022.
The economic effects of Brexit are increasingly tied up with wider economic optimism
Throughout most of 2022, voters became increasingly likely to say
that the UK’s economy is weaker outside of the EU than it would have
otherwise been inside. Yet, in December, the public’s pessimism about
the post-Brexit economy partly reversed.

This is part of growing evidence that perceptions of Brexit rise and
fall with the wider fate of the government. As James Kanagasooriam has
illustrated, from 2016 through to 2020 views on the rights and wrongs of
Brexit were largely independent from satisfaction with the government
more generally. Now, views on Brexit are tied to the government’s fate.
When Conservative fortunes (and economic stability) reached a nadir
under Liz Truss, perceptions of Brexit’s economic impact suffered too.
Sunak’s partial recovery has created less doom about Brexit’s impact on
the economy.
This also means that Leave and Remain voters’ positions on the
economic effects of Brexit now rise and fall at roughly the same rate:
in October, this peaked at 35% of Leave voters saying that the UK
economy is worse off than it would be otherwise with the UK outside the
EU (down to 30% in December).
The public see the EU as a vital partner in dealing with Russia
At the beginning of 2022, our respondents were much more likely to
say that the UK should prioritise cooperation with the United States
when it comes to relations with Russia. In the aftermath of the outbreak
of war in Ukraine in late February, voters seemed to change their
minds. In February, 30% of voters said that it was more important for
Britain to align with the EU on Russia. By the end of the year, this had
risen to 41%.

Interestingly, however, when asked if Brexit has strengthened or
weakened the UK’s ability to respond to the situation in Ukraine, the
public have tended towards saying that Brexit has led to a stronger
response, or at least no weakening of the UK’s position: in our latest
polling 31% say that the UK’s response to Ukraine’s invasion has been
stronger, 34% say the response is similar – just 17 % say weaker, as a
result of Brexit.
Voters remain highly uncertain about where the parties stand on Brexit
The public – and understandably so – do not have a very strong idea
of where the parties stand on Brexit. Labour’s reluctance to say the
B-word means that, by year end, 34% say that Labour would seek a closer
relationship with the EU than the one we have at the moment. This is
fewer than identified this as Labour’s policy at the start of the year.

In the aftermath of its disastrous performance in the 2019 election,
particularly in Leave-voting seats in the Midlands and North of England,
Keir Starmer has been keen to get across to voters that Labour will
‘make Brexit work’ and is not seeking to re-join the European Union.
There are some signs they may be having some success with that message.
On top of questions about the party’s current position, we asked a
different, binary question of whether respondents think Labour’s
longer-term policy objective is to re-join or stay out. While 47% of
Leave voters at the start of the year felt Keir Starmer’s long-term aim
was to re-join, that had fallen to 40% by the end of the year....
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