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05 December 2019

Brexit Weekly

Boris Johnson heads for big majority, Johnson's Brexit plans will cost UK economy up to £20bn a year, EU chief issues Brexit warning over City of London access and more.


We are moving into the end-game of Brexit - even Council President Tusk is urging the Remainers to keep fighting into the penalty shoot-out!

If you are interested in European finance, we are targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation - including ESG and Fin Tech. Details of these services are here

Articles 28 November 2019 - 5 December 2019
The Times: MRP election poll: Boris Johnson heads for big majority : Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago. View Article
The Guardian: Johnson ‘will have to call second referendum if he fails to win majority’ : Boris Johnson could be forced into holding a second referendum on Brexit next summer if he fails to win a majority in the House of Commons but remains as prime minister, according to a new report by academics at University College London. View Article
IPSOS/MORI: Jo Swinson's favourability ratings fall, proportion thinking Labour having 'good campaign' increasing : Ipsos MORI's latest campaign tracker shows Jo Swinson's favourability ratings have fallen sharply in the past week. View Article
The Guardian: Boris Johnson refuses to rule out leaving EU on WTO terms : Boris Johnson has left the door open to coming out of the EU on World Trade Organization terms next year, after his foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, said it was “absolutely” right to keep a no-deal outcome on the table in trade talks. View Article
Charles Michel and departing EU Council chief Donald Tusk - Euronews
The Guardian: EU risks splits over Brexit trade talks, says new council chief : The EU is ready for the next phase of Brexit but risks greater internal divisions over trade talks with the UK, one of its incoming leaders has said. View Article
The Independent: EU to spell out plans for potentially years more Brexit talks on day after general election, leak shows : EU leaders will spell out their plans for potentially years more Brexit talks on the day after the general election, a leaked internal documents seen by The Independent shows.  View Article
EurActiv: One-year EU trade deal is fantasy : Prime Minister Boris Johnson would do better to come clean with the electorate on the complexity of the task ahead of negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU, writes Michael Leigh. View Article
POLITICO: Boris Johnson struggles with questions on trade deals and trust : Boris Johnson could not say how many trade deals his government is ready to conclude after Brexit. View Article
Institute for Government: The UK’s trade strategy should not place the US at the front of the queue : The UK government seems to have built its post-Brexit trade policy on an obsessive pursuit of an extremely contentious US trade deal. Yet, it is likely to be an exhausting search for an illusory behemoth – and with huge risks involved, writes Alex Stojanovic. View Article
POLITICO: No EU trade deal after Brexit risks more austerity : Failure to strike a UK-EU trade deal would force the British government to adopt an austerity program in the medium term, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. View Article
The Independent: Boris Johnson's Brexit plans will cost UK economy up to £20bn a year, report warns : “Getting Brexit done” on the terms of Boris Johnson’s general election manifesto will inflict a hit of up to £20 billion a year on government finances, rising as high as £28 billion if the UK crashes out of the EU without a trade deal agreement at the end of 2020, a new report has warned. View Article
Boris Johnson - Newtral
UK in a Changing Europe: Auto industry issues stark new warning on no deal Brexit : The British auto industry has again offered up a stark warning on the impact of a no deal Brexit. View Article
Financial Times: EU chief issues Brexit warning over City of London access : The EU’s financial services chief has warned that Brussels is ready to cut off the City of London’s post-Brexit market access in a sign of the pressure Britain will face to stay closely aligned with European rules after it leaves the bloc.  View Article
François Villeroy de Galhau: European and French economic outlook and post-Brexit financial architecture : Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, in which he elaborates on the European and French economic outlook, before turning to the future European financial architecture after - and beyond - Brexit.  View Article
Financial Times: Moody’s cuts outlook on UK banking system from stable to negative : Moody’s has reduced its outlook on the UK banking system from stable to negative, saying Brexit uncertainty has eroded “the country’s growth prospects” while low interest rates are hitting lenders’ profitability. View Article
Bloomberg: Brexit deal could help unlock UK investment, CBI says : Leaving the European Union with an “ambitious deal” on trade will help unlock UK investment and lead to a gradual improvement in growth, the Confederation of British Industry said. View Article
Project Syndicate: The UK and the EU should prevent mutual assured damage : Assuming Brexit happens, future historians will probably remember 2020 as the year when an enfeebled and vulnerable Europe chose to make itself feebler and more vulnerable. The task for its leaders now is to avoid making matters even worse. View Article
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Andy Bruce Andy Bruce
??ICM/Reuters poll?? Con: 42% (+1) Lab: 35% (+1) Lib Dem: 13% (-) Brexit Party: 3% (-1) Green: 2% (-1) SNP: 3% (-) Entirety of poll conducted *after* Friday's attack.
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
For investors in U.K. banks, the stakes couldn't be much higher ahead of this month's general election
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
<a href=FT Brussels" src="" /> FT Brussels
EU chief issues Brexit warning over City of London access
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Federal Trust Federal Trust
" UK’s economy is set to become dangerously dependant on govt spending to survive, while its manufacturing and financial services are hollowed out" Bob Savic @GPI_updates says Britain's post-Brexit economic prospects are becoming gloomier by the day…
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Michel Barnier Michel Barnier
In the future, the UK will be our closest and most strategic partner. Under the authority of @vonderleyen and with @JosepBorrellF, we will work on an ambitious future partnership in foreign policy, security & defence. My speech at #EDAconf19!Hn37bu
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
<a href=FT Brussels" src="" /> FT Brussels
Baselheads are intent on crushing European project finance
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
YouGov's latest poll shows the Conservative Party on track to win its biggest majority in more than 30 years
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
<a href=FT Brussels" src="" /> FT Brussels
Global trade slowdown hits EU the hardest, new figures show

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