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17 October 2019

Brexit Weekly

EU and UK negotiators reach a Brexit deal, Queen’s speech, poll shows Boris Johnson cannot get a majority unless he delivers Brexit on October 31, no-deal Brexit could cut UK-EU trade flows by half and more.



BREAKING NEWS: EU and UK reach a Brexit deal (link). In my view this may be a tragedy for the whole of Europe - but the fight is not yet over.


Video news about the 156th Brussels 4 Breakfast on 5th November : Graham Bishop invites you to comment on the topics for the next Brussels 4 Breakfast. As a Friend, you can apply for a place at the event.  

We are moving into the end-game of Brexit - so I look forward to seeing hundreds of thousands of friends in London on Saturday at the March

If you are interested in Europe, we are now targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation. Details of these services are here

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Articles 10 October 2019 - 16 October 2019
Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar - source: The Telegraph



Financial Times: EU and UK reach agreement on Brexit deal : EU and UK negotiators have agreed a new Brexit deal, leaving Boris Johnson with the challenge of selling the accord to political allies at home.  View Article


POLITICO: Johnson tells ministers ‘we’re not there yet’ on Brexit deal : There are still "outstanding issues" in the way of achieving a Brexit deal, Boris Johnson told his Cabinet, as talks to reach an agreement before Thursday's European Council summit go down to the wire. View Article
Main results - General Affairs Council (Art. 50) : EU27 ministers were informed by chief negotiator Michel Barnier on the state of play regarding Brexit ahead of the European Council (Article 50) on 17 October 2019. View Article
POLITICO: Michel Barnier recommends intensifying Brexit talks : EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told ambassadors in Brussels that there are grounds for going deeper into negotiations with the UK. View Article
BBC: Brexit: Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar 'can see pathway to a deal' : Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar agree they can "see a pathway to a possible deal" after talks, Downing Street says. View Article
POLITICO: Queen’s speech: Brexit top priority for UK government : The monarch opened her speech, which sets out the government's legislative plans, by making it clear that Boris Johnson’s top priority is “to secure the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union on 31 October.” View Article
The Queen - source:BBC
The Telegraph: Boris Johnson cannot get a majority unless he delivers Brexit on October 31, Tory conference poll shows : Boris Johnson cannot get a majority in a general election unless he delivers Brexit on October 31, polling presented at Tory conference has shown. View Article
EurActiv: Boris Johnson Brexit deal must go to people to pass parliament, say lawmakers : Any Brexit deal struck by Prime Minister Boris Johnson will need to be put to the British people in a referendum if it is to pass the UK parliament, a cross-party group of UK lawmakers told EURACTIV. View Article
The Guardian: Support grows for a new Brexit poll amid fears over Johnson’s plan : Pro-remain MPs predicted that they were gaining sufficient cross-party support to secure a second Brexit referendum as fresh doubts were raised over whether Boris Johnson can secure a deal with the EU that can pass through parliament. View Article
POLITICO: Poll: Majority of Brits want to leave the EU — but oppose a no-deal Brexit : More than 50 percent of British people are in favor of honoring the result of the 2016 referendum and leaving the EU, irrespective of whether they voted Leave or Remain, according to a new survey. View Article
BBC: Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit? : Where do voters stand on Brexit now, after more than three years of debate and negotiation? View Article
The Guardian: Keir Starmer: Labour will stop no-deal Brexit 'whatever it takes' : Labour will take action in the courts to prevent Boris Johnson from pushing through a no-deal Brexit against the will of parliament, Keir Starmer has pledged. View Article
The Guardian: Boris Johnson wins more backing from MPs for Brexit deal : Boris Johnson is edging towards the parliamentary numbers needed to pass a Brexit deal after more hardline Eurosceptics and pro-deal Labour MPs indicated they could back a new agreement made with the EU. View Article
The Guardian: No time left for Brexit deal before EU summit, says Finnish PM : Boris Johnson’s hopes of sealing a Brexit deal before an EU summit on 17-18 October have been dealt a blow after Finland’s prime minister said he believed time had run out. View Article
Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier - source: FT
The Guardian: EU ready to grant Brexit extension in build-up to key summit : Jean-Claude Juncker has talked up the prospects of a Brexit extension beyond 31 October as EU officials downplayed the chances of a breakthrough in time for the EU Council's crunch summit. View Article
Financial Times: Nicola Sturgeon calls for second independence vote in 2020 : Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon said that a second Scottish referendum “must happen next year” as she dismissed Westminster’s continued refusal to grant another independence vote as unsustainable.  View Article
Institute for Government: No-deal Brexit would be high-stakes gamble with the Union : A no-deal Brexit would be highly controversial in all three devolved nations and increase risks to the Union itself, argues a new report by the Institute for Government.  View Article
UK in a Changing Europe: The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals : The Prime Minister has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What, though, would the plan mean for the UK economy? That is the question researchers seek to answer in this paper.  View Article
The Guardian: An EU deal ‘won’t mean a quick restart for the UK economy’ : Britain’s economy will take years to recover from the uncertainty that has seen companies abandon investment plans and move headquarters abroad, economists warned. View Article
Financial Times: UK economy set to avert recession despite August stumble : The British economy is on track to avoid a recession ahead of the latest Brexit deadline, boosted by a return to growth in the services sector. View Article
Financial Times: No-deal Brexit could cut UK-EU trade flows by half : The flow of goods across the UK-EU border could be cut by more than half in the event of a no-deal Brexit on October 31, according to the most up-to-date assessment by Whitehall’s efficiency watchdog. View Article
Financial Times: Trade bodies appeal for regulatory alignment post-Brexit : The UK’s largest manufacturing industries have warned of “serious risk” to competitiveness and “huge new costs and disruption to UK firms” if Boris Johnson ends regulatory alignment as part of any post-Brexit trade deal. View Article
POLITICO: Merkel sees post-Brexit UK as ‘potential competitor’ to EU : Post-Brexit Britain will be a potential competitor to the European Union alongside China and the United States, German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared. View Article
Bloomberg: Banks sit on FX markets sideline ahead of Brexit, says Carney : Britain’s biggest banks are trimming their exposure to currency markets as Brexit nears, according to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. View Article
Bruegel: Brexit and finance: Brace for no impact? : One of the structural shifts, or lack thereof, that may be associated with the UK’s possible departure from the European Union, and not the least, is the potential impact on the European and global financial system, writes Nicolas Véron. View Article
FCA sets out latest expectations for firms on Brexit : The FCA and regulated firms have been taking steps to prepare in the event the UK leaves the EU on 31 October 2019 without a deal. The FCA has issued an update on steps certain firms need to take. View Article
Financial Times: UK jobs market stutters ahead of Brexit deadline : The number of people employed in the UK has unexpectedly dropped with official statistics showing the biggest fall in four years as Brexit uncertainty finally weighed on one of the more resilient areas of the British economy. View Article
Financial Times: Brexit uncertainty hitting manufacturing profit levels, poll finds : Almost two-thirds of companies in a poll by Make UK, the manufacturers’ organisation, said that Brexit worries had already undermined profit margins in the past two years. Nearly half had seen a negative change in EU customer and supplier attitudes towards doing business with them. View Article
Bloomberg: No-deal Brexit would cost Ireland 73,000 jobs, central bank says : A no-deal Brexit would cost Ireland more than 73,000 jobs over the next two years, the nation’s central bank said. View Article
UK Trade Policy Observatory: Economic realities of Brexit for firms and people in Northern Ireland : The focus on the politics of the contentious issue of the Irish border means that there has been little discussion of the economic impacts and specifically of the vulnerability of the Northern Irish economy to the decisions being made, warns Michael Gasiorek. View Article
Financial Times: Hundreds of German companies call for EU help as Brexit fears bite : Hundreds of German companies have appealed for more direct support from Brussels and a business-friendly stance from EU lawmakers as they grapple with the effects of Brexit, the US-China trade war and a global economic slowdown. View Article
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Louise Guillot Louise Guillot
It seems that #Brexit is taking too long for some people. According to new survey, more than 50% of British people are in favor of honoring the result of the 2016 referendum and leaving the EU, irrespective of whether they voted Leave or Remain.…
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
The meeting between EU ambassadors and the bloc's chief Brexit negotiator has been pushed back — again
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
<a href=FT UK Politics" src="" /> FT UK Politics
No-deal Brexit could cut UK-EU trade flows by half
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Olli Rehn Olli Rehn
In defence of ?@ecb? monetary policy by facts and analysis. An important op-ed article by former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet. ?@FT? #pricestability #monetarypolicy ?@SuomenPankki?…
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
Michel Barnier said the EU should give one last chance to the British as he met EU diplomats this evening. He said no significant progress had been made over the weekend, but thinks worth continuing talks until Wednesday - one day before European council. 1.
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Financial Times Financial Times
Global regulators put pressure on Libra with enhanced scrutiny
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Tim Figures Tim Figures
The main impact of which would be felt by Britain’s manufacturers. Tariffs and border delays/paperwork hit hardest if you’re trading in goods.…
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Donald Tusk Donald Tusk
The UK has still not come forward with a workable, realistic proposal. But I have received promising signals from Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar that a deal is possible. Even the slightest chance must be used. A no deal #Brexit will never be the choice of the EU.

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