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05 September 2019

Brexit Weekly


Welcome to our 'new look' Brexit Watchers weekly e-mail. 

We have revised our approach to focus on the big themes for the next legislative period. We are targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation. Details of these services are here

Interested in Continuing Professional Development (CPD)? Please click here for our CPD services

Apologies for the length of this first e-mail of the season… much has happened in the 'holidays'.

Articles from 26 July 2019 - 06 September 2019

The Guardian: Boris Johnson to seek election after rebel Tories deliver Commons defeat : Boris Johnson has announced that he will ask parliament to support plans for a snap October general election after suffering a humiliating defeat in his first House of Commons vote as prime minister. View Article
POLITICO: Boris Johnson loses control : More than 20 of the British prime minister’s own MPs voted against him in a bid to prevent a no-deal Brexit. View Article
The Guardian: Tory rebels threaten Boris Johnson after majority cut to one : Boris Johnson faced a grave threat to his control of parliament on Friday as he was warned that Conservative rebels could cross the House of Commons to foil Brexit in the aftermath of a by-election that reduced his working majority to just one MP. View Article
The Guardian: Boris Johnson asks Queen to suspend parliament : Boris Johnson has set up an extraordinary confrontation with MPs when they return to Westminster next week by announcing that he has asked the Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks from mid-September. View Article
Paul Goldschmidt: The Prorogation Gambit : Goldschmidt argues that the PM’s surprise decision to obtain from the Queen a prorogation of Parliament from September 12th to October 14th is an extremely astute move that has wrong-footed those who oppose a “no deal” Brexit. But there is probably much more to this gambit than meets the eye!  View Article
Federal Trust: Brexit: Moderate Conservative MPs must stop complaining and start acting. : Brendan Donnelly argues that moderate Conservative MPs now have the chance and obligation to start to repair the damage done by their Party in recent years. View Article
The Guardian: Brexit will happen on 31 October 'whatever the circumstances' - No 10 : Brexit will take place on 31 October “whatever the circumstances”, Downing Street has said, refusing to say whether Boris Johnson would regard a vote in parliament against a no-deal departure as sufficient reason to change course. View Article
Financial Times: Johnson plans ‘boosterism’ to ease Brexit pain : Boris Johnson arrived in Downing Street declaring that “there is cash available” and that he is ready to spend it. The new prime minister will embark on a new economic strategy known in Number 10 as “boosterism”. View Article
The Guardian: Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating Brexit deal, EU told : Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his “central scenario”, European diplomats have been told, amid hardening evidence in Westminster that the government is expecting to crash out of the EU. View Article
City AM: Michel Barnier: Irish backstop is best solution we can offer UK : The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has defended the controversial Irish backstop as the best it could offer the UK in any Brexit deal. View Article
Financial Times: EU signals it is open to Brexit extension — if UK asks for one : Europe is leaving the door open to a third extension to Britain’s EU membership after Boris Johnson’s defeat in the House of Commons raised the possibility that the UK will need to seek a further delay to its exit.  View Article
The Guardian: Brexit: EU ‘would block trade deal if Britain reneged on bill’ : The European Union would refuse to negotiate a trade deal with the UK if the government reneged on the Brexit bill, EU sources have said. View Article
Financial Times: The EU must prepare for a no-deal Brexit : Wolfgang Münchau writes that EU leaders have not yet braced their voters for the economic impact of a large EU country leaving the customs union and the single market overnight. View Article
The Independent: Cross-party group of 40 MEPs sign pledge to work together to keep EU membership on the table : Remain-supporting British MEPs have formed a new cross-party alliance and pledged to work together in the face of Brexit and Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament. View Article
The Guardian: UK's 'boisterous' efforts to get new deal will not work, says senior MEP : The vice-president of the European parliament has said it is unlikely there will be a new Brexit deal at the next European council summit on 17 October. View Article
Department for Exiting the EU: The UK will not nominate a new Commissioner to the EU : The UK will not nominate a new Commissioner to the EU as it prepares to leave on 31 October 2019. View Article
The Guardian: We have been forgotten by Boris Johnson, say Britons in Europe : Campaigners for British citizens in Europe say they are being treated as nonentities by Boris Johnson in his race to get Brexit over the line. View Article
BBC: No-deal recession less severe now, says central bank boss : A no-deal exit from the EU would probably see the economy shrink by less than previously estimated, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has said. View Article
The Guardian: UK falls to bottom of G7 growth league in second quarter : The UK has fallen to the bottom of the G7 growth league table after Brexit uncertainty held the economy back in the spring. View Article
BBC: UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' : The UK is at risk of slipping into recession, according to a closely watched survey of industry managers. View Article
The Guardian: UK less able to cope with hard Brexit than it was in spring, say officials : The UK is currently less able to cope with a hard Brexit than it was in the spring, with the real risk of panic-buying in the run-up to Christmas and civil disorder if the country leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October, an official document reveals. View Article
UK in a Changing Europe: No deal will lead to prolonged and severe political and economic uncertainty : No deal will not “get Brexit done” rather, it will usher in a period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses, which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, a new report by academic think tank The UK in a Changing Europe reveals. View Article
CBI: Neither UK nor EU ready for no deal, contingency planning study finds : A new report from UK’s biggest business group puts forward 200 recommendations to help accelerate no deal preparations for UK, EU and companies. View Article
UCL European Institute: Brexit could cause major disruption to EU-UK data flows : UK businesses could be in for a huge headache if the government fails to secure an agreement on data flows between the EU and the UK post-Brexit, according to a new report published by UCL European Institute. View Article
New Europe: The Swiss expect ‘no deal’ with the EU before 2020 : Switzerland is unlikely to sign its own trade agreement with the EU prior to Brexit, according to Economy Minister Guy Parmelin. View Article
Bloomberg: Great Brexit insurance migration shifts $75 billion from London : As much as 61 billion pounds of business is shifting to rival financial centers in the European Union as a consequence of Britain’s vote to leave the bloc. And it’s happening regardless of the divorce terms. View Article
Vox EU: The impact of Brexit on UK firms : This column uses a major new survey of UK firms to show that the anticipation of Brexit has already made its mark on the UK economy. It has gradually reduced investment by about 11% and decreased productivity by about 2% to 5% over the three years since the referendum. View Article
The Independent: No-deal Brexit could trigger deadly clashes between fishermen, experts warn : Fears are growing that a no-deal Brexit could lead to serious disorder at sea and possible loss of life – which could then trigger a wider escalation of tensions. View Article
The Guardian: Most cross-Irish border traders 'completely unprepared' for no deal : Only 6% are ready for cashflow and liquidity problems if the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October, according to a survey commissioned by InterTradeIreland, a body that advises small and medium-sized companies. View Article
The Guardian: We'll block trade deal if Brexit imperils open Irish border, say US politicians : Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned. View Article
Institute for Government: Preparing Brexit: No Deal : A new paper looks at what the Prime Minister will need to do in the next 94 days to prepare for no deal, and what he will have to do after 31 October if the UK has left the EU without a deal. It argues it could leave very little space for an ambitious domestic agenda. View Article
Institute for Government: The Brexit battle is fundamentally changing the constitution : The government’s announcement that it would prorogue Parliament has escalated disagreements about the constitution, conventions and the powers of Parliament. A general election may provide a route out of the current impasse, but the process of Brexit has done lasting damage to the constitution.  View Article

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© Copyright 2019 Graham Bishop

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