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25 July 2019

Brexit Weekly

Boris Johnson new Prime Minister, culls cabinet to make his Brexit mark and pledges to leave the EU on October 31; Brussels to offer Boris Johnson extension on no-deal Brexit, Michel Barnier says UK 'will have to face consequences' in event of no deal; Brexit may have already triggered UK recession.

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  Articles from 18 July 2019 - 25 July 2019

  Brexit & UK
The Guardian: Boris Johnson elected new Tory leader
Boris Johnson will become Britain’s next prime minister after winning a convincing victory over Jeremy Hunt in the Conservative party leadership race.  View Article
POLITICO: Boris Johnson pledges to leave the EU on October 31: ‘No ifs, no buts’
Boris Johnson said the U.K. would leave the European Union "no ifs, no buts" on October 31 as he pledged to "restore trust in democracy."  View Article
Bloomberg: The great purge: Boris Johnson culls cabinet to make his Brexit mark
Boris Johnson executed a brutal clear-out of more than half of his predecessor’s top team, installing supporters in key roles as the new prime minister signaled his intent to deliver Brexit in 98 days.  View Article
The Guardian: Philip Hammond to quit government if Boris Johnson becomes PM
Philip Hammond has confirmed he will resign as chancellor if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister next week, as the scale of opposition to a no-deal Brexit among some ministers became increasingly plain.  View Article
The Guardian: Brussels greets Boris Johnson victory by rejecting Brexit plans
Boris Johnson’s election as Conservative leader has been greeted in Brussels with a rejection of the incoming British prime minister’s Brexit demands and an ominous warning by the newly appointed European commission president about the “challenging times ahead”.  View Article
The Guardian: Ursula von der Leyen: hard Brexit would be massive blow for both sides
The European commission’s new president has said a hard Brexit would have “massively negative consequences” for both Britain and the EU, and said Brussels could provide emergency help for nations such as Ireland that bear the brunt of such an outcome.  View Article
The Guardian: Brussels to offer Boris Johnson extension on no-deal Brexit
Brussels is preparing to offer Boris Johnson a no-deal Brexit extension beyond 31 October in an attempt to help him keep the Conservative party together and provide one more chance to strike an agreement deal.  View Article
Brexit: An orderly exit is in the interests of both parties
European Parliament’s newly constituted Brexit Steering Group chaired by Guy Verhofstadt met with EU negotiator on 24 July following the change of Prime Minister in the UK.  View Article
POLITICO: Merkel: Brexit backstop stays unless Irish border alternative found
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the backstop arrangement in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement can only be "overwritten" if an alternative solution is found in the declaration on the future relationship.  View Article
The Guardian: Change in No 10 will not alter Brexit reality, warns Irish deputy PM
A change in British prime minister will not shift the fundamental realities of Brexit, Ireland’s deputy PM has warned, saying there is no chance of the EU ditching or watering down the Irish backstop.  View Article
YouGov: By 43% to 37% Britons don’t think Boris becoming PM means there needs to be a general election
A snap poll conducted by YouGov reveals that by 43% to 37% Britons don’t think the change at the top means there needs to be an election.  View Article
YouGov: Tories want Boris for the long run, not just Brexit
Results of the latest polling show most Tory voters (57%) want to see Boris Johnson managing the Brexit process, and while fewer want to see him running the country afterwards this figure is still relatively high at 46%.  View Article
EPC: No-deal Brexit may be the only way out for Boris Johnson
Larissa Brunner indicates that Boris Johnson's new premiership has opened the next chapter of the Brexit saga. Whether he has the will and capacity to find a positive solution is highly questionable, indicating that a no-deal outcome is the most likely.  View Article
BBC: Michel Barnier says UK 'will have to face consequences' in event of no deal
The UK will have to "face the consequences" if it opts to leave without a deal, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator has said.  View Article
Financial Times: French minister says Paris ready if Johnson goes for no-deal Brexit
Although France does not want the no-deal Brexit being considered by Boris Johnson, the UK’s new prime minister, it is prepared to deal with its consequences, said Amélie de Montchalin, France’s Europe minister.  View Article
Financial Times: No-deal Brexit poses threat to world economy, IMF warns
A no-deal Brexit ranks alongside US trade policy as one of the chief threats to the world economy, according to the IMF’s latest assessment of the outlook for global growth.  View Article
Paul Goldschmidt: “Brexit”: “No deal is now practically unavoidable
Recent declarations by both European and British politicians alike, make a “no deal” Brexit outcome more and more likely, whether it comes about by default, following the absence of a request to extend the UK’s membership, or by a refusal of the EU to grant such a request, laments Goldschmidt.   View Article
Financial Times: Scotland leads the charge against a no-deal Brexit
The Scottish National Party's spokesperson Joanna Cherry warns that support for independence grows as the threat of crashing out of the EU looms.  View Article
The Guardian: Gordon Brown: 'Boris Johnson could be UK's last prime minister'
The ex-PM says that Johnson’s anti-Europe conservatism is seen in Scotland as anti-Scottish.   View Article
House of Commons: A ‘No deal’ Brexit would be the most economically damaging outcome for UK business
The Committee on Exiting the EU warns that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would lead to severe disruption, pose a fundamental risk to the competitiveness of key sectors of the UK’s economy and put many jobs and livelihoods at risk.   View Article
Bloomberg: Brexit may have already triggered UK recession, Niesr says
The UK’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the UK into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.  View Article
The Guardian: No-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession, says OBR
A no-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession that would shrink the economy by 2%, push unemployment above 5% and send house prices tumbling by around 10%, according to the government’s independent forecasting body.  View Article
Bloomberg: BOE’s Haldane says Brexit undermining work to boost UK economy
Brexit is undermining efforts to boost the UK economy by holding back the government from implementing its industrial strategy, according to Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane.  View Article
Financial Times: Brexit turmoil deters top candidates for BoE governor’s job
The political turmoil caused by Brexit has put two of the world’s leading central bankers off applying for the Bank of England governorship, according to two people close to the appointment process.  View Article
Bloomberg: There’s no such thing as free access, EU to warn UK on banks
The UK should expect a “rigorous” assessment of its regulations before financial firms will be allowed to do business in the European Union after Brexit, according to a draft document to be presented by officials in Brussels later this month.  View Article
AFME publishes list of remaining no-deal Brexit risks
AFME published a short briefing paper outlining remaining risks for the financial services sector in the event of a no-deal Brexit.  View Article
Bloomberg: UK manufacturing orders fall at fastest pace since 2009 crisis
UK manufacturers are more pessimistic than at any time in the past three years after order books shrank at a pace last exceeded during the financial crisis a decade ago, according to the Confederation of British Industry.  View Article
Bloomberg: Boris Johnson says US trade deal won't be forged quickly
Boris Johnson, the favorite to succeed Theresa May as UK Prime Minister, said a trade deal won’t be reached with the US soon after Brexit, predicting discussions will be “tough” and “robust.”  View Article
YouGov: Half of Britons think Theresa May was a bad PM
Research by pollster YouGov shows that half of the public (49%) believe May has been a bad PM, compared to just one in five (21%) who think she’s performed well in the role.  View Article

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