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16 July 2015

Brexit 'Weekly'

Brussels for Breakfast, EU budget, IMF, Greece, Euro summit, Grexit, ECB, euro area bank lending survey, Brexit, CMU, re-election of Dijsselbloem and more.

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Graham's Articles, Comments & Speeches


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  Articles from 09 July 2015 - 16 July 2015

  Grahams Articles, Comments & Speeches
112th Brussels for Breakfast
Main topics included: Grexit, BRRD, Five Presidents Report, Instant Payments, Target2 and “29th Regime”.  View Article
European Commission mobilises more than €35 billion from the EU budget for boosting jobs and growth in Greece
(15 July)The Jobs and Growth Plan for Greece is meant to flank the comprehensive set of reforms that could form part of a programme under the European Stability Mechanism to be negotiated in the coming weeks between Greece and its international partners.  View Article
European Council: Press remarks by Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem after the Eurozone summit
(13 July) Within two days, the Greek parliament must approve a number of reforms for the new agreement to begin formal negotiations under the ESM Treaty: a new fund for privatisation and recapitalisation of banks, along with taxes hikes and pensions reforms.  View Article
European Council: Remarks by Dijsselbloem following the Eurogroup meeting
(13 July) Eurogroup President reports about Greece negotiations' results and the ongoing process for achieving a new ESM programme, the Five President's Report, and the implementation of the Fiscal Compact.  View Article
European Commission: Agreement on Greece - President Juncker satisfied: "There will not be a Grexit"
(13 July) The Euro summit agreed to start negotiations on a support programme for Greece under the ESM, subject to strict conditions and accompanied by support for growth and employment in the order of EUR 35 billion.  View Article
European Council: Remarks by President Donald Tusk after the Euro Summit on Greece
(12 July) The Greek government and the European leaders have reached an agreement, which now will need the support of several national parliaments. Negotiations on a new ESM programme are ready to be started.  View Article
IMF: Greece - An Update of IMF Staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
Greek debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years: it has become highly unsustainable, and would need a deeper debt relief than the EU would consider.  View Article
Financial Times: Greece’s new economic reform proposal
On substance, the new “prior actions” come very close to creditors’ last “prior actions” proposal, which Greek voters overwhelmingly rejected in a referendum. None of the documents mentions debt relief.  View Article
Yanis Varoufakis: Dr Schäuble’s Plan for Europe - Do Europeans approve?
The former Greek Finance Minister argues that the plan for Greece from the German government was a Grexit instead of a new bailout programme, even before Alexis Tsipras government was elected.  View Article
New Statesman: Yanis Varoufakis about the negotiations on Greece
In his first interview since resigning, Greece's former Finance Minister says the Eurogroup is “completely and utterly” controlled by Germany, Greece was “set up” and last week’s referendum was wasted.  View Article
POLITICO / Verhofstadt: Greece is a symptom of Europe’s crisis
The only way out of this crisis is a completely new and comprehensive approach which provides real reform to Greece for real European cooperation. A global package that works beyond today’s crisis, but that will deliver growth and prosperity for the years to come.  View Article
Goldschmidt: The Brussels Summit - Versailles? Munich? Or Breton Woods?
The Eurozone is confronted with a radical choice: either moving rapidly towards a federal structure or dismantling EMU. The political risks are enormous: will our leaders be up to the challenge?  View Article
LSE letter on Greece crisis
This column, signed by 25 LSE economists, urges the Greek government and its creditors to act more responsibly. The first priority is to get Greece on a path of sustainable growth by relaxing austerity in the near term and linking debt restructuring to essential structural improvements.  View Article
IMF Direct / Blanchard: Greece - Past Critiques and the Path Forward
The Fund said to be committed to helping Greece through this period of economic turmoil, but it is unable to provide any financing until the arrears are cleared.   View Article
Financial Times: Three unedifying lessons of the Greek deal
EU leaders overruling domestic policies, France's rediscovery of its status as coequal leader of the European project, and the ECB forcing a shutdown of the Greek banking system are the three lessons we can draw from the latest deal between Greece and its creditors.  View Article
Financial Times: ECB emergency loans will keep stricken Greek banks afloat
Greece’s banks are to be kept afloat for the rest of the summer with further European Central Bank emergency loans backed by €10bn of guarantees from eurozone governments.  View Article
Financial Times: Europe will pay the price for Greece
A euro without Greece would be a much weakened enterprise: holding on to Greece would be costly. Losing it would be seriously expensive.  View Article
Financial Times / Röttgen : Europe must remember that this crisis is not Greece alone’s
As the debate over Greece’s membership of the euro lurches towards its final act, there is a rising risk that this very European crisis is seen in overwhelmingly national terms.  View Article
City A.M.: Greece makes further euro integration unavoidable – with big risks for the UK
Even if this new deal manages to stave off Grexit in the near future, the eurozone needs to be reinforced if the bloc is to have any chance of succeeding in the long term: such reforms could damage Britain’s influence within the wider EU.  View Article
Bruegel: Preserving the Greek financial sector - options for recap and assistance
Could the ESM play a productive role in a likely rescue of Greece’s embattled banking sector?  View Article
Spiegel Online: Why a Grexit Must Be Avoided
Europe is preparing for a Grexit and German voters would like to see the country leave the common currency regime. That, though, would be the wrong move. A Grexit must be avoided at all costs.  View Article
Open Europe: How much financial help might Greece need under Grexit?
Despite optimism around the new proposals it is still looking challenging to avoid a Grexit. In such a scenario Greece will need additional financial aid in order to help stabilise its economy and manage the difficult transition to a new currency.  View Article
Bloomberg: Orderly Grexit poses a puzzle for EU lawyers gaming out doomsday
Even if the creditors pull the plug, Greece will remain legally part of the euro zone on Monday. It could hang on in a half-out, half-in state indefinitely, creating legal murk for businesses and adding to the doubts about Greece’s economic prospects.  View Article
ICSA: Two thirds of UK companies believe a Brexit would damage them
Survey of UK’s 350 biggest firms finds just 3% think Britain leaving the EU would be positive for their businesses but most are reluctant to speak out publicly.  View Article
European Council: Statement on the appointment of the President of the Eurogroup
Jeroen Dijsselbloem was re-elected President of the Eurogroup unanimously.  View Article
ECB: Results of the July 2015 euro area bank lending survey
Euro area banks reported a continued net easing of credit standards on loans to enterprises and households for house purchase, and that additional liquidity from the TLTROs continues to be used for granting loans.  View Article
BIS / Noyer: Views on the Capital Markets Union project
Three major pre-requisites have to be met for the CMU to succeed: a clearly defined framework focused on a limited set of operational deliverables; the right articulation between market-based financing and bank financing; and the necessity to ensure financial stability in the long run.  View Article
CEPS: Keep capital markets union simple
A first step in any new legislative plan should be to set a clear objective, based on a thorough analysis of the reasons for the persistent differences in markets and a prioritisation of initiatives aimed at reaching more integration.  View Article
EU budget 2016: Council agrees its position
The Council backed the funds proposed by the Commission for a number of priority areas such as EFSI, the payment plan agreed with the European Parliament and others.  View Article
Economic and fiscal policies: European Council issues recommendations to member states
The Council thereby formally concluded the 2015 'European Semester' after the European Council endorsed the recommendations at its meeting in June.   View Article
EurActiv: China’s bid for EU investment fund trips on complex rules
China could invest up to €10 billion in the EU's new infrastructure fund, but a final decision is being held up by the complex mechanics of a deal to give Chinese technology companies a greater role in Europe.  View Article

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