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18 February 2016

Brexit 'Weekly'

European Council Summit, Brexit, Brussels for Breakfast, Greece, EDIS, Banking Union, ECB, automatic exchange of tax data, European Semester, Portugal and more.

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Graham's Articles, Comments & Speeches



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  Articles from 11 February 2016 - 18 February 2016

  Grahams Articles, Comments & Speeches
IN Facts: Post-Brexit City firms must still abide by rules
Despite some financial advisers saying that there would be no post-Brexit “apocalypse” – firms could set up a brass plate company in an EU country and carry on as usual, Graham Bishop points out that "Europeans would not let the Brits get in under the radar."  View Article
118th Brussels for Breakfast
Topics covered were Brexit, the Commission’s `Call for Evidence’ on financial services regulation; the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book; the postponement of MiFID; IORP II; and IAS9’s application.  View Article
Invitation letter by President Donald Tusk to the members of the European Council
Council President Tusk invites leaders of the member states to the Council Summit on 18-19 February, and says "there is still no guarantee that we will reach an agreement".  View Article
Reform of UK membership: “Parliament will do the utmost to support the compromise”
In the case of a deal on a reform of the UK’s EU membership, Parliament will do its utmost to support it, but the result is not guaranteed, warned EP President Martin Schulz. He spoke out after UK Prime Minister David Cameron discussed Parliament’s position with leading MEPs.   View Article
European Council: Remarks by President Donald Tusk after his meeting in Bucharest with President Klaus Iohannis of Romania
Council President Tusk briefed the press about the main topics discussed in the round of consultations ahead of the European Council: the possibility of a Brexit and the migration crisis. Tusk said "the risk of break-up is real because this process is indeed very fragile."  View Article
Paul Goldschmidt: The stakes of the Summit are not necessarily those that come to mind!
The EU Council summit’s priority should be enhancing the Union’s cohesion and its capacity to deal with the challenges of immigration and terrorism. The relationship between the UK and the EU is a secondary matter that should be considered only once the future of “an ever closer Union” is assured.  View Article
Financial Times: The City of London gains nothing from leaving the EU
Engagement not exit is the way to preserve a national asset, in the FT's view.  View Article
Financial Times: Britain locked in battle with France and Germany over City rules
Britain is at loggerheads with France and Germany over the right of the City of London to diverge from the eurozone's financial rules, one of the most consequential unresolved issues in the UK's “new settlement” with Europe.  View Article
Bloomberg: Brexit to Put £466 Billion of UK Trade at Risk, Study Says
A British departure from the European Union would put at risk 466 billion pounds of UK trade with nations in Europe and beyond, according to a report by the Centre for Economic and Business Research.  View Article
Bertelsmann Stiftung: British and German companies regard Brexit as a threat
Four out of five business leaders in the UK and Germany have expressed their opposition to a withdrawal from the European Union. Nearly a third of UK and German businesses in the United Kingdom asked about a Brexit threatened to reduce or even relocate capacity in the UK.  View Article
ComRes/ITV News: Big rise in those who want Britain to leave EU
The lead for “Remain” has narrowed to eight points in a new ComRes poll for ITV News. 49% of Britons now say they would vote to remain in the EU if a referendum was held tomorrow, compared to 41% who say they will vote for leave.  View Article
BCC: Business voting intentions harden as PM seeks final deal
Nearly two-thirds (63%) of the senior business people polled in a major new British Chambers of Commerce survey have revealed that the outcome of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation is unlikely to change how they will vote.  View Article
Reuters: Britain's economy will be worse off if it leaves the EU
Britain's economy would be worse off if voters decide the country should leave the European Union, according to an overwhelming majority of economists polled by Reuters who also gave it a 40 percent chance of happening.  View Article
ACCA: CCAB calls for informed debate on EU Reform
The forum for accountancy bodies in the UK and Ireland is calling on businesses to engage with the debate on EU reform, and ensure they are aware of the information and resources to inform their understanding of the role of the EU, and how its relationship with business could become more effective.  View Article
Financial Times: Business groups up the ante in Brexit battle
A war of words has broken out between businesses on either side of the Brexit debate as a group of European organisations call for Britain to remain in the EU while leading figures in the Commonwealth back the campaign to leave.  View Article
The Guardian: UK better in reformed Europe, says HSBC chair
HSBC chairman Douglas Flint said he believed the UK should stay within a reformed Europe, as the bank announced it was keeping its headquarters in London. In the event of a ‘no’ vote in the referendum, bank could switch non-ringfenced staff from London to Paris.  View Article
City AM: Ignore EU scaremongers: Why Britain would thrive post-Brexit
A economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group explains the main reasons why she thinks that a Brexit would make the UK 'flourish'.  View Article
Reuters: BoE's Cunliffe does not expect UK to join EU banking union
Britain is unlikely to join the European Union's banking union, as it is not needed for being part of the wider EU single market, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said.  View Article
Open Europe: Leaked UK-EU deal reveals EU leaders only willing to discuss narrow British exceptionalism rather than EU-wide reform
A leaked draft of the latest UK-EU deal suggests France and Germany are fighting UK demands on banking regulation and the status of non-Euro states in the EU, while other states don't want the UK benefit curbs to apply more widely.  View Article
Policy Network: The risk of Brexit: an opportunity for the EU?
As the threat of fragmentation looms, the EU must seize a chance to redefine itself. There is a case for greater cooperation, but with less infringement on national sovereignty.  View Article
UK Parliament: Report on EU foreign and security strategy published
The EU External Affairs Sub-Committee published its report into the EU foreign and security strategy, said the EU needs to concentrate its resources on its immediate neighbourhood and acknowledged that a Brexit would diminish the effectiveness of the UK’s foreign policy.  View Article
The Guardian/Soros: Putin is a bigger threat to Europe’s existence than Isis
The best way for Russia to avoid collapse is by making the EU implode first – by exacerbating the migration crisis and stoking Islamophobia.  View Article
EurActiv: Merkel and Hollande devise a plan for the future of the eurozone
The two leaders are expected to unveil a joint proposal on the future of the eurozone by the end of 2016, once they have set aside their own differences over how to pursue integration.  View Article
IMF: Greece - Toward a Workable Program
No amount of pension reforms will make Greece’s debt sustainable without debt relief, and no amount of debt relief will make Greece’s pension system sustainable without pension reforms, writes senior IMF official Olivier Blanchard.  View Article
AFME: Key considerations for the design of EDIS
AFME supports the objectives of establishing an effective Banking Union and reinforcing public confidence in deposit insurance as part of a comprehensive framework for dealing with failing banks.  View Article
Bruegel: European Deposit Insurance - a response to Ludger Schuknecht
Nicolas Véron argues that there are two major oversights in Dr Schuknecht’s anti-European Deposit Insurance outburst, respectively about deposit insurance and about banking union.  View Article
POLITICO/Padoan: ‘Eurozone needs a finance minister’
The eurozone needs its own finance minister and must accelerate integration of its banking and fiscal policies in order to tackle the financial, economic and migration crises it faces, Italy’s Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan told POLITICO.  View Article
Vox EU: Completing the Banking Union
The Eurozone’s Banking Union has two issues that need to be addressed simultaneously for economic and political reasons: banks are holding too much debt of their own sovereign, and deposit insurance is only backstopped at the national level.  View Article
The Economist: A tempest of fear
The start of the year has been downright disastrous for shares in banks. The fall in the overall European banking index of 24% has brought it close to the lows it plumbed in the summer of 2012. European banks are in the eye of a new financial storm.  View Article
Remarks by J. Dijsselbloem following the Eurogroup meeting
Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem comment on the issues discussed: the winter forecast, the Commission's assessment of the Portuguese draft budget and the review of the ESM programme in Greece.  View Article
"We have plenty of monetary policy instruments if needed", Draghi tells MEPs
The ECB’s asset purchase programme is flexible enough to adapt to changing economies and markets, he replied to comments that it may soon run out of room to manoeuvre.  View Article
Reuters: ECB back in court as German group seek to curb its power
The European Central Bank returned to Germany's constitutional court to defend an emergency plan made at the height of the economic crisis in a long-running legal battle with a group of Germans who want to curb its power to act.  View Article
Bruegel: The ECB’s quantitative easing programme - limits and risks
The ECB has made a series of changes to its APP to expand the universe of purchasable assets and have more flexibility in the execution of the programme. However this might not be enough to sustain QE throughout 2017. This extension also raises questions about its potential adverse consequences.  View Article
EU and Andorra sign deal on automatic exchange of tax data
The agreement will contribute to efforts to clamp down on tax evasion, by requiring the EU member states and Andorra to exchange information automatically.  View Article
EUbusiness: Commissioner Moscovici says firms should pay taxes where they earn profits
The EU's top economic affairs official that companies should pay taxes where they earn profits, days after a report of another firm using aggressive strategies to lower their bill.  View Article
Remarks by Vice-President Dombrovskis at the European Semester Conference
Valdis Dombrovskis' speech highlights were: the Commission's Winter Economic Forecast; the publication of the annual country reports; how the European Semester is taking a more central role; and the economic strategy for the 2016.  View Article
VoxEU: The way forward - Coping with the insolvency risk of member states and giving teeth to the European Semester
The two challenges for the Eurozone are the specific insolvency risk to which the member states are exposed, which in the longer term it can only be eliminated by some form of debt mutualisation; and its insufficient coordination of fiscal policies and wage trends.  View Article
VoxEU: How to reboot the eurozone and ensure its long-term survival
The eurozone in its current state is not an optimal currency area and is fragile. Since a stabilisation fund and a budgetary union are politically unobtainable right now, small steps should be implemented to create some fiscal space, and to start with a limited programme of debt consolidation.  View Article
VoxEU: Safeguarding the euro – balancing market discipline with certainty
The eurozone crisis has shown that the eurozone is still not a properly functioning currency union. There are three areas of further reform: disentanglement of sovereigns and banks, completion of a banking union, and an institutional convergence for a fully integrated financial system.   View Article
VoxEU: Balance-of-payments adjustment in the Eurozone
As a monetary union based on a single currency, the eurozone is supposed to be immune from problems characteristic to fixed-exchange rate regimes, but it still faces some adjustment issues. In the long run, the eurozone should aim to achieve a full integration of labour and capital markets.  View Article
VoxEU: Which fiscal union?
The eurozone needs to build elements of a common fiscal policy, which could be done through the creation of a European Fiscal Institute, modelled on principles similar to those used for the ECB.  View Article
Eurogroup statement on the Draft Budgetary Plan of Portugal for 2016
The Eurogroup discussed Portugal's DBP and agreed with the Commission in welcoming the additional fiscal measures announced by the Portuguese authorities to meet the medium-term objective as well as those measures to be implemented when needed to ensure compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.  View Article

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